The Hartford 2014 Annual Report Download - page 58


The establishment of property and casualty insurance product reserves is an estimation process, using a variety of methods, assumptions and data elements.
Ultimate losses may vary materially from the current estimates. Many factors can contribute to these variations and the need to change the previous estimate
of required reserve levels. Subsequent changes can generally be thought of as being the result of the emergence of additional facts that were not known or
anticipated at the time of the prior reserve estimate and/or changes in interpretations of information and trends.
The table below shows the range of annual reserve re-estimates experienced by The Hartford over the past ten years. The amount of prior accident year
development (as shown in the reserve rollforward) for a given calendar year is expressed as a percent of the beginning calendar year reserves, net of
reinsurance. The percentage relationships presented are significantly influenced by the facts and circumstances of each particular year and by the fact that
only the last ten years are included in the range. Accordingly, these percentages are not intended to be a prediction of the range of possible future variability.
See “Impact of key assumptions on reserve volatility” within this section for further discussion of the potential for variability in recorded loss reserves.
 






    
[1] Excluding the reserve strengthening for asbestos and environmental reserves, over the past ten years reserve re-estimates for total property and casualty insurance ranged
from (2.5)% to 1.0%.
The potential variability of the Company’s property and casualty insurance product reserves would normally be expected to vary by segment and the types of
loss exposures insured by those segments. Illustrative factors influencing the potential reserve variability for each of the segments are discussed above.
A table depicting the historical development of the liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance, follows:



          
Liabilities for unpaid losses and
loss adjustment expenses, net of
reinsurance $ 16,191 $ 16,863 $ 17,604 $ 18,231 $ 18,347 $ 18,210 $ 17,948 $ 18,517 $ 18,689 $ 18,676 $ 18,765


One year later 3,594 3,702 3,727 3,703 3,771 3,882 4,037 4,216 4,274 4,072
Two years later 6,035 6,122 5,980 5,980 6,273 6,401 6,664 6,897 7,019 —
Three years later 7,825 7,755 7,544 7,752 8,074 8,241 8,503 8,875 — —
Four years later 9,045 8,889 8,833 9,048 9,411 9,538 9,928 — — —
Five years later 9,928 9,903 9,778 10,061 10,395 10,649 — — — —
Six years later 10,798 10,674 10,564 10,845 11,303 — — — — —
Seven years later 11,448 11,334 11,216 11,612 — — — — — —
Eight years later 12,023 11,895 11,883 — — — — — — —
Nine years later 12,526 12,493 — — — — — — — —
Ten years later 13,088 — — — — — — — — —

One year later 16,439 17,159 17,652 18,005 18,161 18,014 18,315 18,513 18,881 18,904
Two years later 16,838 17,347 17,475 17,858 18,004 18,136 18,275 18,686 19,207 —
Three years later 17,240 17,318 17,441 17,700 18,139 18,093 18,299 19,013 — —
Four years later 17,344 17,497 17,439 17,866 18,120 18,056 18,629 — — —
Five years later 17,570 17,613 17,676 17,848 18,092 18,408 — — — —
Six years later 17,777 17,895 17,673 17,857 18,437 — — — — —
Seven years later 18,064 17,899 17,749 18,215 — — — — — —
Eight years later 18,062 18,045 18,097 — — — — — — —
Nine years later 18,214 18,390 — — — — — — — —
Ten years later 18,565 — — — — — — — — —

                    
58