Reebok 2014 Annual Report Download - page 151

Group Management Report – Financial Review
147
2014
Subsequent Events and Outlook
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03.4
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adidas Group
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2014 Annual Report
Global economy to grow in 2015 1)
Global GDP growth is projected to increase moderately to 3.0% in 2015. At 2.2%, developed economies
are expected to grow slightly faster than last year, supported by improving labour markets and
low financing costs. Growth in developing countries should benefit from the strengthened recovery
in high-income markets and accelerate somewhat in 2015. Oil prices are foreseen to remain
low, encouraging global growth and resulting in more divergent outlooks for oil-exporting and
oil-importing countries.
In Western Europe, external demand is likely to improve slightly, and consumer spending is
expected to remain resilient as a result of stronger real wages from declining oil prices. Financial
fragmentation as well as high unemployment and unresolved fiscal challenges in some countries
are forecasted to dampen the recovery. As a result, the region’s GDP is expected to expand at
around the same rate as in the previous year (2014: 1.3%). In Germany, private consumer demand
will prevail as the major driver of growth, which is however projected to be held back by subdued
investment spending.
European emerging markets are expected to grow at a moderate pace of 1.5% in 2015, as persistent
political tensions and uncertainty will slow down investment spending, while further currency
devaluations, high inflationary pressures and low real wages will impact private household demand.
Such a high-risk scenario would particularly affect Russia’s economy, which is forecasted to
contract 3.0% this year.
In the USA, private consumption is projected to remain the major source of growth supported by
declining energy prices. While the strong US dollar will dampen export activity, investment spending
is expected to increase. As a result, the US economy is forecasted to grow 3.2% in 2015.
Asia’s GDP is projected to increase 4.2% in 2015. With the exception of Japan, growth is expected
to remain relatively high during the year, supported by healthy industrial activity, manageable
inflationary pressures and significant wage increases. China should remain the fastest-growing
economy, forecasted to expand 7.3%, with external demand picking up and private consumption
remaining stable. While Japan is predicted to continue to grow at subdued levels, modestly profiting
from low oil prices, India is expected to drive growth through private domestic demand and
strengthened investment.
In Latin America, GDP growth is expected to increase somewhat to 1.2% in 2015, with exports and
investment supporting expansion. Positive performance in several countries will offset the slow
recovery of the largest economies, e.g. Brazil and Argentina, where currency fluctuations and the
unfavourable job market conditions with its negative implications for household consumption will
drive the forecasted decline in economic activity. 1) Sources: World Bank, HSBC Global Research.