Travelers 2011 Annual Report Download - page 151

longer to finalize and are more difficult to estimate relate to bodily injury claims. In general, claim
reporting lags are minor, claim complexity is not a major issue, and the line is viewed as high
frequency, low to moderate severity. Overall, the claim liabilities for this line create a moderate
estimation risk.
Commercial automobile reserves are typically analyzed in four components: bodily injury liability;
property damage liability; collision claims; and comprehensive claims. These last two components have
minimum reserve risk and fast payouts and, accordingly, separate risk factors are not presented.
The Company utilizes the conventional actuarial methods mentioned in the general discussion
above in estimating claim liabilities for this line. This is supplemented with detailed custom analyses
where needed.
Examples of common risk factors, or perceptions thereof, that could change and, thus, affect the
required commercial automobile reserves (beyond those included in the general discussion section)
include:
Bodily injury and property damage liability risk factors
• Trends in jury awards
• Changes in the underlying court system
• Changes in case law
• Litigation trends
• Frequency of claims with payment capped by policy limits
• Change in average severity of accidents, or proportion of severe accidents
• Changes in auto safety technology
• Subrogation opportunities
• Changes in claim handling philosophies
• Frequency of visits to health providers
• Number of medical procedures given during visits to health providers
• Types of health providers used
• Types of medical treatments received
• Changes in cost of medical treatments
• Degree of patient responsiveness to treatment
Commercial automobile book of business risk factors
• Changes in policy provisions (e.g., deductibles, policy limits, endorsements, etc.)
• Changes in mix of insured vehicles (e.g., long haul trucks versus local and smaller vehicles, fleet
risks versus non-fleets)
• Changes in underwriting standards
Unanticipated changes in risk factors can affect reserves. As an indicator of the causal effect that a
change in one or more risk factors could have on reserves for commercial automobile, a 1% increase
(decrease) in incremental paid loss development for each future calendar year could result in a 1.2%
increase (decrease) in claims and claim adjustment expense reserves.
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