BMW 2012 Annual Report Download - page 75

75 COMBINED GROUP AND COMPANY MANAGEMENT REPORT
are forecast to remain flat in Germany, France and Spain
and decrease marginally in the UK and Italy.
The car market in Japan could see a drop of 4 % to 5.0 mil-
lion
units as the catch-up effect begins to wane.
A growth rate of around 10 % is forecast for the Russian
car market in 2013, which would entail a volume of
some 3.0 million units. Demand for cars in India is pre-
dicted to rise by 7 % to 2.9 million units in 2013. The
corresponding figures for Brazil are 9 % and 3.95 million
units respectively.
Motorcycle markets in 2013
Overall, we expect the world’s motorcycle markets in
the 500 cc plus class to grow slightly in 2013. In Europe,
however, the negative trend is quite likely to continue,
with only the German market looking set to remain
stable. Modest growth is forecast for the USA and Japan.
The motorcycle market in Brazil is also likely to con-
tinue expanding, even if not quite as dynamically as in
recent years.
The financial services market in 2013
The forecast of moderate growth for the global econ-
omy in the current year is likely to be achieved – among
other factors – on the back of looser monetary policies
in the USA, China and some growth markets. Down-
beat economic prospects will probably ensure that i
n-
flationary pressures in industrialised countries do not
rise further. We are assuming that the world’s major
central banks continue their expansionary monetary
policies throughout the current year. Both the European
Central Bank (ECB) and the US Reserve Bank have an-
nounced their intention to keep interest rates at their
current low level during 2013. Refinancing conditions
for the whole sector are likely to remain volatile for
the foreseeable future given the pervading nervousness
on the world’s capital markets.
There is also unlikely to be any change in the divergent
development of vehicle residual values over the course
of 2013. The economic situation will remain particularly
tense in southern Europe. At present, it is difficult to
assess the extent to which the sovereign debt crisis will
affect other European countries. For the time being, it
seems reasonable to assume that used car markets out-
side Europe will remain more or less stable in average
terms.
A similarly heterogeneous picture is also likely to apply
for the credit risk situation over the course of 2013.
Compared to the ongoing tenseness in southern Europe,
the overall situation elsewhere is expected to improve
marginally.
Outlook for the BMW Group in 2013
High public-sector debt levels and the prospect of con-
solidation in spending, particularly in Europe, remain a
source of uncertainty in 2013. Other concerns for the
global economy have been kindled by slower growth in
China and political instability in a number of regions.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that greater vola-
tility in forecasting parameters currently makes it more
difficult for the BMW Group to predict future perfor-
mance
with any degree of accuracy.
Our answer to uncertainties in a volatile environment is
to follow our Strategy Number ONE, which we
have
been actively implementing for several years now.
The
strategic aim we are pursuing is clearly reflected
in the
excellent figures reported for the past year and
en ables
us to look forward with confidence to 2013. We intend
to continue the success story with our strong brands,
all of which enjoy a global presence. We will be
aided in
this endeavour by our attractive range of models
and
services, comprehensively designed to meet the needs
of individual mobility. With our focus on “premium”,
as the world’s leading provider we benefit to an excep-
tional extent from the high demand for premium seg-
ment
vehicles.
We forecast that vehicle sales will again rise to new re-
cord levels in 2013, enabling the BMW Group to remain
the world’s foremost premium car manufacturer.
Demand for our models remains high, particularly for
the BMW 1, 3, 5 and 6 Series and the BMW X family.
The launches of the BMW 3 Series Touring on European
markets and the BMW 3 Series Sedan (with xDrive four-
wheel-drive system) in the USA have also driven sales
momentum, right from the outset. Further impetus will
come from the BMW X1, which is now also available in
China and the USA. Our exceptionally strong sales per-
formance in some parts of the world, such as in China
and the USA, is more than compensating the market
weakness a number of European countries are currently
experiencing. Even here, however, we are still achieving
good growth in a host of countries.