BMW 2011 Annual Report Download - page 73

73 COMBINED GROUP AND COMPANY MANAGEMENT REPORT
Economic outlook for 2012
The global economy faces a number of major risks in
2012. Economic growth is generally expected to slow
down from approximately 3.0 % in 2011 to around 2.5 %
in 2012. The main influencing factors are likely to
remain the future course of the euro crisis on the one
hand and developments in the property and banking
sectors in China on the other.
Even if the euro crisis takes a positive course, the euro
zone economy is still predicted to stagnate as a whole.
Of all the major economies in the region, only Germany
is likely to achieve growth, albeit at a rate of only 0.2 %.
The other major countries are expected to see their
economic output drop: France by 0.5 %, Spain by 1.2 %
and Italy by 1.5 %. There is currently no end in sight to
the downward trend in Greece (– 5.0 %) and Portugal
(– 4.0 %). The UK economy is forecast to grow by 0.3 %.
By contrast, the recovery in the USA should continue
in 2012 and generate growth of approximately 1.8 %.
Although public-sector-spending austerity measures
will have the effect of holding down growth here, too,
there are nevertheless some signs of improvement on
the employment market and increases in consumer
spending.
The Japanese economy is forecast to grow in 2012 at a
rate of 2.5 %, helped by the backlog effect caused by lost
production after the natural desaster.
China is set to see growth slow down to 7.5 %, with ex-
ports held down by flagging demand from Europe, and
selling prices as well as revenue in the property sector
lower due to the restrictive monetary policies pursued
by the Chinese central bank.
A growth rate of 7.0 % is forecast for India. Given the size
of the country’s agricultural and consumer sectors, the
international weight of the Indian economy remains
limited. Lower raw materials prices are likely to dampen
growth in Brazil (+ 2.5 %) and Russia (+ 3.5 %).
Slightly weaker euro expected
The uncertainties prevailing within the euro zone sug-
gest that currency markets will again be highly volatile
in 2012. Given the expectation of a slight recovery of
the US economy and a weaker euro zone, the US dollar
may possibly gain in value slightly. The same applies
to the British pound and the Japanese yen. It is assumed
that the value of the Chinese renminbi will remain
coupled to the US dollar.
Car markets in 2012
The risks facing the global economy mean that the pros-
pects
for international car markets in 2012 are also
subject to uncertainty. The world’s largest car market,
China, is expected to grow by around 6 % to 18.5 million
units. Demand is expected to gain pace again in the
USA, with the car market expanding by around 6 % to
13.5 million units.
Due to economic uncertainties in the European Union,
the total number of cars sold in the region is forecast
to drop by 4 % to 12.5 million units. In Germany the
market is expected to consolidate at a level of 3.1 mil-
lion units. In France, we forecast that the market will
contract by approximately 6 % to 2.0 million. The British
market is likely to stagnate at just under 2.0 million
units. Further significant decreases are forecast in par-
ticular for both Italy and Spain. In Japan, the catch-up
effect after production losses in the past year could
well result in 20 % market growth to 4.8 million units.
Amongst the major emerging economies, the car
market in India is expected to register the highest
growth rate, whereas Brazil and Russia are only likely
to grow slowly.
Motorcycle markets in 2012
We do not expect to see any major recovery on inter-
national motorcycle markets in 2012. Given the uncer-
tain macroeconomic conditions, European markets are
unlikely to do more than move sideways. In the USA
and Japan, there is at least a chance that markets will
recover slightly. Another strong year is forecast for the
motor cycle market in Brazil.
The financial services market in 2012
The sovereign debt crisis is likely to be the dominant fac-
tor for financial services providers in 2012. Concerns
about the stability of the financial system could end up
being reflected in a high degree of volatility on
inter-
national financial markets.
Inflation is currently run-
ning at moderate levels. The expansionary monetary
policies being pursued by the major central banks
look set to continue for the time being. As long as
un-
certainty persists, volatile risk spreads are likely to
result in fluctuating refinancing costs for the whole
sector.
Selling prices on international used car markets should
remain generally stable in 2012. Price levels could,
however, fall in a small number of markets in southern
Europe in response to negative economic developments
and due to the fact that their used cars inventories are
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