DHL 2013 Annual Report Download - page 93
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. Opportunity and risk management process
1 Identify and assess
Assess
Define measures
Analyse
Identify
5 Control
Review results
Review measures
Monitor early warning indicators
Internal
auditors
review
processes
2 Aggregate and report
Review
Supplement and change
Aggregate
Report
3 Overall strategy / risk
management / compliance
Determine
Manage
4 Operating measures
Plan
Implement
Divisions Opportunity and risk-controlling processes Board of Management Internal auditors
e most important steps in our opportunity and risk management process are:
1 Identify and assess: Opportunities and risks are dened as potential deviations from
projected earnings. Managers in all divisions and regions provide an estimate of
our opportunities and risks on a quarterly basis and document respective actions.
ey use scenarios to assess best, expected and worst cases. Each identied risk is
assigned to one or more managers, who assess it, monitor it, specify possible pro-
cedures for going forwards and then le a report. e same applies to opportunities.
e results are compiled in a database.
2 Aggregate and report: e controlling units responsible collect the results, evaluate
them and review them for plausibility. If individual nancial eects overlap, they
are noted in our database and taken into account when compiling them. Aer being
approved by the department head, all results are passed on to the next level in the
hierarchy. e last step is complete when Corporate Controlling reports to the
. Monte Carlo simulation
Frequency of occurrence
in one million simulation steps (incidence density)
Bandwidth with probability
– aa m + bb m + zz m
Deviation from planned
Planned Most common value in one million simulation steps (“mode”)
“Worse than expected” “Better than expected”
89Deutsche Post DHL 2013 Annual Report
Opportunities and Risks
Opportunity and risk management processes
Group Management Report