DHL 2013 Annual Report Download - page 92

OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS
Overall Board of Management assessment
of opportunity and risk situation
No foreseeable risk to the Group
Identifying opportunities and risks – and swily capitalising upon or counteracting
them – is an important objective for our Group. is is why we already account for
the anticipated impact of potential events and developments in our current business
plan. e opportunities and risks reported here represent additional potential deviations
from the Group’s projected earnings. In consideration of our current business plan, the
Group’s overall opportunity and risk situation has not changed signicantly compared
with last year. No new risks have been identied that could have a potentially critical
impact on the Group’s result. Based on the Group’s early warning system and in the
estimation of its Board of Management, there were no identiable risks for the Group
in the current forecast period which, individually or collectively, cast doubt upon the
Group’s ability to continue as a going concern. Nor are any such risks apparent in the
foreseeable future. e assessment of a stable to positive outlook is moreover reected
in the Group’s credit ratings.
Opportunity and risk management processes
Uniform reporting standards for opportunity and risk management
As an internationally operating logistics company, we are faced with numerous
changes. Our aim is to identify the resulting opportunities and risks at an early stage
and take the necessary measures in the specic areas aected in due time to ensure that
we achieve a sustained increase in enterprise value. Our Group-wide opportunity and
risk management system facilitates this aim. Each quarter, managers estimate the impact
of future scenarios, evaluate opportunities and risks in their departments and present
planned measures as well as those already taken. Queries are made and approvals given
on a hierarchical basis to ensure that dierent managerial levels are involved in the
process. Opportunities and risks can also be reported at any time on an ad hoc basis.
Our early identication process links the Group’s opportunity and risk manage-
ment with uniform reporting standards. We continuously improve the  application
used for this purpose. Furthermore, we use a Monte Carlo simulation for the purpose
of aggregating opportunities and risks in standard evaluations.
is stochastic model takes the probability of occurrence of the underlying risks
and opportunities into consideration and is based on the law of large numbers. From
the distribution function of each individual opportunity and risk one million randomly
selected scenarios – one for each opportunity and risk – are combined. e resulting
totals are shown in a graph of frequency of occurrence. e following graph shows an
example of such a simulation:
Financial position, page  f.
88 Deutsche Post DHL 2013 Annual Report
Group Management ReportOpportunities and Risks
Overall Board of Management assessment of opportunity and risk situation
Opportunity and risk management processes