DHL 2013 Annual Report Download - page 106

. Global economy: growth forecast

2013 2014
World trade volumes 2.7 4.5
Real gross domestic product
World 3.0 3.7
Industrial countries 1.3 2.2
Emerging markets 4.7 5.1
Central and Eastern Europe 2.5 2.8
 countries 2.1 2.6
Emerging markets in Asia 6.5 6.7
Middle East and North Africa 2.4 3.3
Latin America and the Caribbean 2.6 3.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.1 6.1
Source: International Monetary Fund  World Economic Outlook, January  update. Growth rates
calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity.
e Chinese export economy is expected to benet from rising global demand. In
addition, the Chinese government has adopted a number of reforms aimed at accel-
erating growth. However, investments could be hurt by overcapacities. Forecasts for
 growth are therefore mixed (: . , : . ; Global Insight: . ). In
Japan, export activity is expected to pick up signicantly in . A continued revival
in domestic demand is also anticipated. However, the pending substantial increase in
value added tax is likely to put the brakes on private consumption temporarily. For that
reason,  will presumably grow at the same rate as in the previous year (: . ,
: . ; Global Insight: . ).
e United States is likely to experience a signicant improvement in the situation
on the labour market, which would benet private consumption. e major drivers of
this development are again expected to be construction spending and corporate invest-
ment. Foreign trade is also expected to revive.  growth will presumably accelerate
noticeably overall (: . , : . ; Global Insight: . ).
In the euro zone, the economy is forecast to continue its gradual recovery, with
the improvement in the economic climate beneting exports. Private households are
expected to obtain relief from tax increases, which should act to drive private con-
sumption. Companies are also likely to increase their capital expenditure again. On the
whole, however,  growth is expected to be moderate (: . , : . ; Global
Insight: . ).
Early indicators suggest that the upturn in Germany will continue. Exports are
increasing, and companies are upping their capital expenditure. is could lead to an
increase in investments in machinery and equipment as well as construction spending
along with a rise in the number of employed persons and a corresponding decrease in
the unemployment rate. is would lay the foundation for rising incomes and – assum-
ing the ination rate remains very low – an increase in private consumption.  is
therefore likely to see signicant growth (: . , Sachverständigenrat: . ; Global
Insight: . ).
Given a balanced ratio of supply to demand, the price of crude oil should remain
stable for the most part in .
102 Deutsche Post DHL 2013 Annual Report
Expected Developments
Future economic parameters
Group Management Report