DHL 2013 Annual Report Download - page 108

Moderate market growth expected in the freight forwarding business
Aer the decline in output in some industry sectors led to weaker growth in freight
volumes overall in , forecasts now indicate that the situation in the air freight market
could improve slightly in .
Ocean freight capacities are expected to increase further because new vessels are
being put into operation. At the same time, demand is likely to remain stable or rise
slightly.
As in the reporting year, we expect European road transport volumes to grow
slightly at best or even stagnate in , which reects the unaltered moderate economic
forecasts for the region.
Supply Chain market remains robust
e trend towards outsourcing warehouse and distribution services continues. For
this reason, projections indicate that the market for contract logistics will continue
to experience stable growth of more than  . Many companies prefer to outsource
their logistics, especially in periods of economic weakness with high cost pressure and
increasingly complex supply chains. Demand for supply chain services is expected to
see particularly strong growth in emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil and
Mexico, where we benet from a strong market position.
e market for marketing solutions and business process outsourcing is also likely
to grow further. We anticipate strong growth for the Williams Lea business unit on the
basis of both our strong service portfolio and the further development of our broad
 customer base.
Although the economic climate remains uncertain, we are ensuring by means of
our Growth rough Excellence strategy that we continue to take advantage of our
strengths – extensive reach and mature sector expertise – to protably grow both new
and existing business.
Revenue and earnings forecast
In light of the fact that the world economy again saw below average growth in the
reporting year, we expect slight economic expansion at best in . e global trading
volumes relevant to our business are expected to perform similarly. We are therefore
anticipating a corresponding revenue trend, with increasing revenue, particularly in
the  divisions.
Against this backdrop, we expect consolidated  to reach between . billion
and . billion in nancial year . e  division is likely to contribute around
. billion to this. Compared with the previous year, we expect an additional improve-
ment in overall earnings to between . billion and . billion in the  divisions.
e Corporate Center / Other result should be better than –. billion.
In line with our Group strategy, we are targeting organic growth and anticipate only
a few small acquisitions in , as in the previous year.
We still intend to achieve the goals we set for the year . Due to the allocation
of parts of the parcel business outside Germany to the  division that took eect
on  January , we are adjusting the anticipated earnings contributions for the year
 as follows. In the  division, we now expect at least . billion rather than the
previous estimate of at least  billion. Accordingly, we now anticipate the  divisions
to make a contribution to earnings of between . billion and . billion.
104 Deutsche Post DHL 2013 Annual Report
Group Management ReportExpected Developments
Future economic parameters
Revenue and earnings forecast