DHL 2012 Annual Report Download - page 99

assets; the earnings position remained unaected. e European Commission has thus
far not expressed its nal acceptance of the calculation of the state aid to be repaid. It
cannot be ruled out that Deutsche Post  will be required to make a higher payment.
More information about the state aid investigation and other legal proceedings is
provided in the Notes.
Insurable risks
Our nancing and insurance strategy also enabled us to make signicant savings in
. It separates insurable risk into two groups:
e rst group comprises risks with a high probability of occurrence and low indi-
vidual cost. ese risks are insured via what is known as a captive, an insurance company
owned by the Group that is able to insure such risks at a lower cost than third-party
insurers. e majority of our insurance expenditure is incurred for this risk group, which
along with lower costs oers other advantages. Costs remain stable as the Group is less
aected by changes in the availability and price of outside insurance. We receive reliable
data upon the basis of which we can analyse risk with a high probability of occurrence
and low individual cost. We can then set minimum standards and targets for such risk.
e second group consists of risks that have a low probability of occurrence but
could entail high losses, such as air transport risks. ese risks are transferred to third-
party insurers.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF RISK POSITION
No foreseeable risk to the Group
International economic output has a signicant impact on the performance of the
logistics market and thus generally aects our revenue and earnings. However, the
strengths of our business model are coming to the fore in the current volatile environ-
ment. Deutsche Post DHL is well positioned in terms of its operations. Strategically,
the Group is positioned to benet from momentum on the markets. In previous years,
we further improved our cost structures and made them more exible. In Germany,
our future corporate prots could be aected by changes in the regulatory conditions
pertaining to the domestic mail market. is assessment is also reected in the credit
ratings awarded by the ratings agencies.
To assess the overall risk, we evaluate scenarios for the individual risks and
opportunities. We take the sum of the best case and worst case scenarios to calculate
the total spectrum of results for each Group division. e sum of the expected cases of
occurrence indicates the result currently estimated by those in charge. e Monte Carlo
simulation additionally takes the probability distribution of the individual opportunities
and risks into account.
On the whole, based on the Group’s early warning system and in the estimation
of the Board of Management of the Group, in the past nancial year there were no
identiable risks for the Group which, individually or collectively, cast doubt upon the
Group’s ability to continue as a going concern, nor are any such risks apparent in the
foreseeable future.
Note 
Financial position, page  f.
Deutsche Post DHL Annual Report 
Group Management Report
Outlook
Opportunities and risks
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