DHL 2012 Annual Report Download - page 108

. Global economy: growth forecast

2012 2013
World trade volumes 2.8 3.8
Real gross domestic product
World 3.2 3.5
Industrial countries 1.3 1.4
Emerging markets 5.1 5.5
Central and Eastern Europe 1.8 2.4
 countries 3.6 3.8
Emerging markets in Asia 6.6 7.1
Middle East and North Africa 5.2 3.4
Latin America and the Caribbean 3.0 3.6
Africa south of the Sahara 4.8 5.8
Source: International Monetary Fund  World Economic Outlook, October . Growth rates calculated on the basis of purchasing
power parity.
In China, the government is making eorts to boost domestic demand.  growth
is therefore expected to pick up slightly : . .
e Japanese economy suered a serious setback around the end of . Even if the
economy regains its footing during the course of , conditions remain unfavourable.
Private consumption and capital expenditure are likely to stagnate and exports to rise
only marginally.  is therefore expected to experience only weak growth (: . ,
: . , Postbank Research: . ).
In the United States, the economy is forecast to continue on a restrained growth path.
Construction spending may again make strong advances. Private consumption is pro-
jected to rise moderately, reecting the increase in employment gures. Foreign trade is
not expected to provide any stimulus. Government spending will probably not remain
a notable drain on the economy. Forecasts predict that  growth will decline slightly
overall compared with the prior year (: . , : . , Postbank Research: . ).
For the euro zone, indications are increasing that the economy will stabilise and
could even recover marginally. Although domestic demand, capital expenditure and
private consumption are likely to drop further, the decline will be slower than in recent
periods. Foreign trade is expected to continue propping up the economy. However, 
will see another slight dip in  despite the low initial level (: −. , Postbank
Research: −. ).
Early indicators such as the ifo German business climate index do suggest that the
economy in Germany could stabilise. However, the upturn will remain marginal at the
outset. Foreign trade is not expected to provide any stimulus. By contrast, construction
spending should rise slightly. Capital expenditure will nonetheless remain weak, which
is likely to be reected negatively in the labour market. Private consumption will thus
increase only slightly, despite the continuing rise in incomes.  will see slight growth
at best (Sachverständigenrat: . , Postbank Research: . ).
e fact that the global economic environment will be weak initially suggests stable
oil prices. e Energy Information Administration anticipates a balanced ratio of supply
to demand on the crude oil market in .
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