DHL 2010 Annual Report Download - page 121

 e price of crude oil will presumably continue increasing on an annual average.
Should the economic upturn be signi cantly stronger than anticipated, it is even possible
that trading prices will rise measurably over the course of the year.
 e  Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the key interest rate at its cur-
rent extremely low level in .  e  is also likely to leave the key rate at   for
an extended period and only raise it slightly later in the year, provided the economic
recovery continues and the European national debt crisis abates.
Interest rates on the capital markets are likely to experience a slight increase.
However, yield spreads are expected to remain very tight, assuming that in ation pres-
sure stays low.
Dampened growth for global trade
Compared with the reporting year, the growth prospects for global trade in  are
estimated to be dampened; however, Asia, as a global growth engine, will again develop
above average.
The mail business in transition
Demand for mail in Germany depends on the trend in the way our customers com-
municate and the extent to which electronic media continue to replace the physical letter.
We expect the market for mail communication to continue shrinking, although demand
for communication in general will continue to rise. By introducing the -Postbrief,
wehave taken the  rst step towards utilising our expertise in physical communication
to o er competent electronic communications and generate new business in the process.
We have also prepared ourselves for continued, intense competition.
According to forecasts by the Zentralverband der deutschen Werbewirtscha
( German advertising federation), the German advertising market will grow marginally
in .  is market is cyclical and currently  nds itself in transition.  e trend towards
targeted advertising and combinations with internet o ers is likely to continue. Overall,
however, we are seeing a shi in advertising expenditures as companies budget more
for digital media and less for traditional advertising. Moreover, we expect companies to
increasingly resort to more economical forms of advertising. We intend to consolidate
our position in the liberalised market for paper-based advertising and to expand our
share in the advertising market as a whole by integrating online marketing.
 e press services market is likely to keep contracting slightly because of the increas-
ing use of new media.  e economic trend will a ect subscriber numbers and average
weights, thus impacting our future revenue. We plan to develop ideas for new digital
products in this business unit.
 e international mail market takes its cue from how business customers com-
municate.  is is an area in which we aim to tap into new business related to our core
competency, mail.
In the parcel market, we expect to bene t from business customer and consumer
activities in the online marketplace and we intend to expand our position in this market.
Developing our international express business
Experience shows that growth of the international express market is highly depend-
ent on the general economic trend. In light of the latest economic indicators and the
trend in our shipment volumes, we are optimistic regarding the current year.
Deutsche Post DHL Annual Report 
Group Management Report
Outlook
Future economic parameters
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