DHL 2010 Annual Report Download - page 120

Future economic parameters
Global economy: the upswing continues
 e global economic upturn is expected to be sustained in , though the econ-
omy will be susceptible to setbacks. Uncertainty continues to prevail on the  nancial
markets. Moreover,  scal impetus is expected to let up in the industrial nations in par-
ticular. Growth will therefore most likely fall somewhat below the  gures for .  e
International Monetary Fund  is predicting an increase of .  in global economic
output in . Global trade is also likely to continue rising, albeit with somewhat less
momentum than in  : . , : . .
In China, the government is working to keep the economy from overheating.  e
economy is therefore expected to grow somewhat more slowly : . .
In Japan, the economic upturn is likely to weaken perceptibly. Exports will lose
momen tum based on the slowdown in global trade and it is unlikely that domestic
demand will be able to compensate for this de cit.  growth is therefore expected to
be low (: . ,  : . , Postbank Research: . ).
 e economy in the United States will remain divided. Private consumption and
investment in machinery and equipment will pick up, whilst no notable stimulus
is expected from construction spending or foreign trade. On the whole,  growth is
expected to be similar to that of the previous year (: . ,  : . , Postbank
Research: . ).
In the euro zone, the economy is expected to remain on a slow upwards trajec-
tory.  e outlook is positive for private consumption and investment in machinery and
equipment. Exports could outpace imports if the global economy sees solid growth and
domestic demand rises somewhat. However, total  is likely to increase only margin-
ally (: . , Postbank Research: . ).
 e broad basis on which the German economy was resting at the start of 
promises a sustained upswing. Exports are expected to continue increasing, as is domestic
demand. Gross  xed capital formation is likely to rise again, which will bene t the labour
market. Against this backdrop, private consumption should increase sharply. Whilst 
is forecast to be lower than in , it is still projected to outperform the euro zone as
awhole (German Council of Economic Experts: . , Postbank Research: . ).
. Global economy: growth forecasts

2010 2011
Global trade volume 12.0 7.1
Real gross domestic product
Global 5.0 4.4
Industrial nations 3.0 2.5
Emerging markets 7.1 6.5
Central and Eastern Europe 4.2 3.6
 countries 4.2 4.7
Emerging markets in Asia 9.3 8.4
Middle East and North Africa 3.9 4.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 5.9 4.3
Africa south of the Sahara 5.0 5.5
Source: International Monetary Fund  world economic outlook, October , updated January .
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