DHL 2011 Annual Report Download - page 124

 e euro zone economy is expected to experience a profound weak phase. To com-
bat the national debt crisis, spending will be cut and taxes increased, which will likely
also slow private consumption and gross  xed capital formation. As a result of weak
domestic demand, imports are likely to rise at a considerably slower pace than exports
so that foreign trade may have a positive impact on growth. However, total  is likely
to increase only marginally (: . , Postbank Research: . ). A decline in eco-
nomic output cannot be ruled out.  e vast discrepancies between the member states
are likely to remain.
 is development will probably slow the German economy noticeably, an e ect
that will be seen mostly in exports. Investments in machinery and equipment as well as
construction spending are expected to increase but not by as much as in . Annual
average employment  gures are forecast to rise considerably, which is likely to boost
private consumption further. However,  is expected to record only weak to moderate
growth (Sachverständigenrat: . , Postbank Research: . ).
If the global economy grows, the demand for crude oil will increase.  e supply will
probably be expanded as this occurs and, as a result, crude oil prices are likely to see
only a moderate average increase in .
 e  Federal Reserve has announced that it will keep its key interest rate at a
very low level for a longer period of time. A consistent rate between   and .  can
therefore be expected for .  e  will probably keep its key interest rate at . .
Nevertheless, capital market interest rates may rise, although a weak economy and low
key interest rates are likely to keep yield spreads tight.
World trade grows, especially through Asia
 e trend in the industrial countries is likely to be shaped by elevated economic
risks. Consequently, the emerging markets in Asia are again expected to play a signi -
cant role in the growth of global trade in the year . Whilst growth in global trade
volumes (transported quantity in tonnes) is likely to remain unchanged at approximately
 in , growth on the Asian routes is projected to increase further.
Mail business in the digital age
Demand for mail in Germany depends on the trend in the ways our customers
communicate and the extent to which electronic media continue to replace the physi-
cal letter. We expect the market for mail communication to shrink, though demand for
communication in general will continue to rise. By introducing the -Postbrief, we have
taken the  rst step towards utilising our expertise in physical communication to o er
competent electronic communications and generate new business in the process. We
have also prepared ourselves for continued, intense competition.
According to forecasts by the Zentralverband der deutschen Werbewirtscha ( German
advertising federation), the German advertising market will grow marginally again in
.  is market is cyclical and currently  nds itself in transition. We are seeing an
overall shi in advertising expenditures as companies budget more for digital media
and less for traditional advertising.  e trend towards targeted advertising and combin-
ations with internet o ers is likely to continue. Moreover, we expect companies to resort
increasingly to more economical forms of advertising. We intend to consolidate our
position in the liberalised market for paper-based advertising and to expand our share
in the advertising market as a whole by integrating online marketing.
Glossary, page 
Deutsche Post DHL Annual Report 
118