DHL 2011 Annual Report Download - page 104

OUTLOOK
Overall assessment of expected performance
Our strong position as market leader in the German mail and parcel business and in
nearly all of our logistics activities is the best possible basis for our further growth. We
expect consolidated  for full-year  to reach between . billion and . bil-
lion, assuming that the world economy will grow by   to .  and world trade will
exceed that growth.  e  division is likely to contribute between . billion and
. billion to consolidated . Compared with the previous year, we expect an ad-
ditional improvement in overall earnings to approximately . billion in the  divi-
sions. At around –. billion, the Corporate Center / Other result should be on a par
with the previous year. Consolidated net pro t before e ects from the Postbank trans-
action is expected to continue to improve in  in line with our operating business.
Opportunities and risks
OPPORTUNITY AND RISK-CONTROLLING PROCESSES
Uniform reporting standards for opportunity and risk-controlling processes
As an internationally operating logistics company, we are faced with numerous
changes. Our aim is to identify the resulting opportunities and risks at an early stage
and to manage them with the goal of achieving a sustained increase in enterprise value.
Our Group-wide opportunity and risk control system facilitates this aim. Each quarter,
our managers estimate the impact of future scenarios and evaluate the opportunities and
risks in their departments. Risks can also be reported at any time on an ad hoc basis.  e
approvals required by the risk management process ensure that management is closely
involved at di erent hierarchical levels.
Our early identi cation process leads to uniform reporting standards for risk man-
agement in the Group. We make constant improvements to the  application used for
this purpose. We also use a Monte Carlo simulation for the purpose of aggregating risk
in standard evaluations.
 is stochastic model takes the probability of occurrence of the underlying risk and
rewards into consideration and is based on the law of large numbers. For each risk, one
million randomly selected scenarios are combined with each other from the distribution
functions for the individual risks.  e resulting totals are shown in a graph of frequency
of occurrence, which thus acts as an indication of the probability of budget deviations for
each unit reviewed.  e graph indicates a smaller range between the absolute extreme
scenarios within which the earnings for the division have a high probability of falling.
 e following graph shows an example of such a simulation:
Deutsche Post DHL Annual Report 
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