DHL 2011 Annual Report Download - page 123
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Future economic parameters
Economic upturn with risks
e global economy is likely to maintain its growth course in but there are
considerable risks. Sharply rising commodity prices may cause in ation to increase
appreciably, especially in emerging markets, and may signi cantly slow the upturn. e
national debt crisis in the euro zone in particular may have a highly adverse e ect
on international nancial markets. If these risks remain manageable, the International
Monetary Fund expects an increase in global economic output of . . At the start
of the year, most institutes were still giving relatively conservative estimates of growth
in global trade : . , : . .
. Global economy: growth forecasts
2011 2012
Global trade volume 6.9 3.8
Real gross domestic product
Global 3.8 3.3
Industrial nations 1.6 1.2
Emerging markets 6.2 5.4
Central and Eastern Europe 5.1 1.1
countries 4.5 3.7
Emerging markets in Asia 7.9 7.3
Middle East and northern Africa 3.1 3.2
Latin America and the Caribbean 4.6 3.6
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.9 5.5
Source: International Monetary Fund world economic outlook, January .
In China, the government is making e orts to keep in ation under control and to
slow down the economy. e economy is therefore expected to grow somewhat more
slowly : . .
e Japanese economy may be able to recover from the economic downturn. Exports
are forecast to increase considerably and gross xed capital formation will also likely see
a strong rise on account of the rebuilding e orts a er the earthquake. A rise in private
consumption is anticipated. is therefore expected to grow (: . , : . ,
Postbank Research: . ).
In the United States, the economy is projected to revive but not to gain any sig-
ni cant momentum. Investments in machinery and equipment as well as construction
spending are expected to increase. e surplus on the housing market, however, is likely
to curb the upwards trend. Private consumption will probably rise moderately, re ect-
ing the slight decline in unemployment. Foreign trade and government spending is not
expected to provide stimulus. Forecasts call for growth to accelerate slightly overall
(: . , : . , Postbank Research: . ).
Deutsche Post DHL Annual Report
Group Management Report
Outlook
Future economic parameters
117