Porsche 2010 Annual Report Download - page 116

Group management report
Forecast report and outlook
Overall economic development
The marked upturn in the global economy in
2010 is expected to abate in 2011. The high levels
of public indebtedness in many countries, and in-
creased raw materials prices are putting the brakes
on the development of the economy. This year and
next year, Germany is expected to be the only
nation in the European Union that will succeed in
complying with the Maastricht reference figure for
budget deficits of three percent of GDP. But it is not
only the southern European countries of Portugal,
Spain, Italy and Greece that are being forced to
implement cost-cutting measures. According to the
International Monetary Fund, even the major eco-
nomic powers of the USA and Japan must swiftly
reorganize their budgets. As a result, China and
other developing emerging economies, such as
India and Brazil, will remain the key growth drivers
in the world economy in 2011. In Europe, this role
will continue to be played by Germany and France.
The growing international significance of
the Chinese economy involves the risk that the
traditional industrialized countries will become
increasingly dependent on high levels of exports to
the Far East. Should demand from China signifi-
cantly decrease, this would have negative reper-
cussions for the global economy as a whole.
Exchange rate developments
In the reporting period, there were major
fluctuations in the exchange rates between important
currencies. These were due to the high levels of
public indebtedness of some member countries of
the euro area, as well as of the USA. The resulting
concerns regarding the stability of the euro and the
US dollar will continue to hold the currency markets
in suspense, and the US dollar and the euro will
continue to be volatile. Because the Asian currencies
are linked to the US dollar, they will also continue to
fluctuate in a similar way to the euro. By contrast,
the currently strong Swiss franc and Japanese yen
are expected to gradually return to normal.
Interest rate developments
At the end of the reporting period, it re-
mained unclear which central bank would be first to
increase the key interest rates, and when. These
points are not expected to be clarified for several
months. At present, not even the rising global risk of
inflation has been a cause of concern for the central
bankers. As a result, a change in the key interest
rates can be expected at the end of 2011 or begin-
ning of 2012 at the earliest – and is likely to be rela-
tively moderate. Irrespective of this, the reversal of
the trend in the capital markets started last fall.
Commodity price developments
The strong economic upturn also had effects
on the commodity markets. However, the price in-
creases seen during the reporting period, some of
them substantial, are to some extent driven by post-
poned investment – the marked upward trend in the
markets is expected to slow down in the course of
2011. This is also indicated by the Chinese govern-
ment’s efforts to curb the enormous growth by in-
creasing interest rates, thereby moderating demand
for commodities.
Prospects on the automotive markets
Overall, the global automobile market will
continue to grow in 2011. The western European
market, which last year saw a drop in new vehicles
registered, will recover this year. The German Asso-
ciation of the Automotive Industry (VDA) expects a
market volume of 3.1 million vehicles (prior year: 2.9
million) in Germany in 2011. The eastern European
market is expected to develop more favorably. In
North America, the upward trend is likely to continue.
Stronger growth can be expected in the BRIC states
of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
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