DHL 2014 Annual Report Download - page 104

Future economic parameters
Good prospects for slightly accelerated global growth
Prospects for slightly accelerated global growth are favourable in . e economic up-
swing is expected to grow stronger, especially in the industrial countries. Low oil prices
are likely to spur domestic demand. Moreover, scal consolidation pressure has abated.
Monetary policy is likely to remain expansive and continue to support growth. In the
emerging markets, economic performance is projected to vary greatly with the eects
of existing negative factors likely to persist or even grow. is could become a problem,
especially for countries that rely on commodities exports. Risks to global growth could
emanate from geopolitical conicts in particular. It is furthermore impossible to rule
out that the sovereign debt crisis will are up again in the euro zone as a consequence
of conicts of interest on the part of policymakers.
. Global economy: growth forecast

2014 2015
World trade volumes 3.1 3.8
Real gross domestic product
World 3.3 3.5
Industrial countries 1.8 2.4
Emerging markets 4.4 4.3
Central and Eastern Europe 2.7 2.9
 countries 0.9 –1.4
Emerging markets in Asia 6.5 6.4
Middle East and North Africa 2.8 3.3
Latin America and the Caribbean 1.2 1.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.8 4.9
Source: International Monetary Fund  World Economic Outlook, Update January .
Growth rates calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity.
In China, the economy is expected to revive over the course of the year. Exports are set
to rise thanks to growing demand from the industrial countries. It is also possible that
the government will enact scal measures to boost growth.  growth is nonetheless
expected to soen over the year as a whole : . , : . . e Japanese
economy is forecast to recover from the economic setback. However, there are no signs
of a strong upswing. Private consumption is likely to rise slightly. By contrast, export
momentum is expected to slow.  growth will likely see only moderate growth overall
(: . , : . ; Global Insight: . ).
In the United States, the economic upturn could accelerate appreciably. Private
consumption is likely to benet from a further drop in the unemployment rate and low
energy prices. Strong momentum is also expected to come from corporate investment
and residential construction spending. Although foreign trade will presumably have a
negative impact on growth,  is likely to see stronger growth on the whole than in
the previous year (: . ; : . ; Global Insight: . ).
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