DHL 2001 Annual Report Download - page 39
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39
The Group
Group Management Report
Outlook
Economy as a whole
*Deutsche Bank,Global Markets Research, January 2002.
Deutsche Post World Net is assuming that the difficult global economic situation
will continue in 2002,and predicts that German gross national product will grow
by 0.9%.Forecasts for the EU are slightly more positive, with growth in economic
output expected to be 1.1%.Global GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to
grow by 2.3% and world trade by 1.5%.*
Industry development
Both the regulatory environment and the state of the economy will have a pro-
nounced influence on the future development of the European mail market.
The next stage in the development of the European regulatory framework is
currently being mapped out by the amendments to the EU Postal Services
Directive. Further steps toward deregulation – the lowering of weight limits –
are expected in 2003 and 2006 (see also the Risk Report). Overall, assuming
continued economic weakness in 2002, moderate growth in the mail market is
expected. Economic developments and world political events in the wake of
September 11, 2001 also left their mark on the market for courier, express and
parcel services. On the CEP market, we are expecting market growth in 2002
of 3% in Germany and 7% throughout Europe.
During times of economic turmoil, the market for customer-specific logistics
solutions will also profit from the trend toward outsourcing. However, air freight
markets will only return to pre-September 2001 levels in the medium term.We
also expect that developments in the market for European overland transport will
more or less track economic growth.
Given the muted forecasts for both national and international levels,the eco-
nomic development of the financial services sector will be dominated by slow
financial market recovery and by several other issues: pressure to cut costs,
consolidation and full-service and multi-channel strategies.Additional factors
include the still unclear effects of the EU ruling on Sparkassen (German savings
banks), Basle II, the Riester pension products and the conversion to the euro.