Mercedes 2015 Annual Report Download - page 145

152 B | COMBINED MANAGEMENT REPORT | OUTLOOK
The statements made in the Outlook chapter are generally
based on the operational planning of Daimler AG as approved
by the Board of Management and the Supervisory Board in
December 2015. This planning is based on the premises we set
regarding the economic situation and the development of the
automotive markets. It involves assessments made by Daimler,
which are based on relevant analyses by various renowned
economic research institutes, international organizations and
industry associations, as well as on the internal market
analyses of our sales companies. The prospects for our future
business development as presented here reflect the targets
of our divisions as well as the opportunities and risks presented
by the anticipated market conditions and the competitive
situation. We are constantly adjusting our expectations, however,
taking into account the latest forecasts on the development
of the world economy and automotive markets, as well as our
recent business development. The statements made below
are based on the information available to us in February 2016.
Our assessments for the year 2016 are based on the assumption
of generally stable economic conditions and the expectation
that the upward trend of the global economy and of worldwide
demand for motor vehicles will continue. The development
we have outlined is subject to various opportunities and risks,
which are explained in detail in the Risk and Opportunity
Report. E pages 138 ff
The world economy
At the beginning of 2016, the world economy is continuing
along a path of moderate growth. The solid growth of the
advanced economies continues to be one of the key drivers of
the global economy. But for the first time in five years, the
emerging markets might also be able to support the upward
trend with their aggregate growth rate.
Current leading indicators suggest that the US economy will
continue the upswing that has now lasted for six years. This
outlook is based on the continuation of solid domestic demand
and above all the robust growth of private consumption, and
should not be altered by the fact that the US Federal Reserve has
emerged from the phase of zero interest rates. The majority
of analysts therefore expect growth in gross domestic product
(GDP) of 2 to 2.5%.
The outlook for the Japanese economy is significantly less
positive. In order to achieve the projected GDP growth of just
over 1%, it is above all necessary for private consumption to
increase following its decrease in 2015.
The economy of the European Monetary Union (EMU) should
continue its recovery in 2016. The main drivers are likely to be
the latest – once again more expansive – monetary policy
measures of the European Central Bank, the comparatively weak
euro, rising real incomes and ongoing support from low raw-
material prices. To what extent the dominant political events such
as the refugee crisis and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding
the Ukraine conflict will affect economic prospects in Europe
cannot yet be assessed at the beginning of 2016. It is currently
assumed that the EMU could achieve economic growth in the
magnitude of 1.5 to 2%. Growth expectations for the German
economy are within a similar corridor. With growth of more than
2%, the British economy should expand again significantly,
despite the debate about its continued membership of the
European Union.
Outlook