DHL 2015 Annual Report Download - page 94
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Deutsche Post Group — Annual Report
collectively, cast doubt upon the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern. Nor are
any such risks apparent in the foreseeable future. e assessment of a stable to positive
outlook is moreover reected in the Group’s credit ratings.
Opportunity and risk management
Uniform reporting standards for opportunity and risk management
As an internationally operating logistics company, we are facing numerous changes. Our
aim is to identify the resulting opportunities and risks at an early stage and take the
necessary measures in the specic areas aected in due time to ensure that we achieve
a sustained increase in enterprise value. Our Group-wide opportunity and risk manage-
ment system facilitates this aim. Each quarter, managers estimate the impact of future
scenarios, evaluate opportunities and risks in their departments and present planned
measures as well as those already taken. Queries are made and approvals given on a
hierarchical basis to ensure that dierent managerial levels are involved in the process.
Opportunities and risks can also be reported at any time on an ad hoc basis.
Our early identication process links the Group’s opportunity and risk management
with uniform reporting standards. We continuously improve the application used for
this purpose. Furthermore, we use a Monte Carlo simulation for the purpose of aggre-
gating opportunities and risks in standard evaluations.
e simulation is a stochastic model that takes the probability of occurrence of the
underlying risks and opportunities into consideration and is based upon the law of large
numbers. One million randomly selected scenarios– one for each opportunity and
risk– are combined on the basis of the distribution function of each individual oppor-
tunity and risk. e resulting totals are shown in a graph of frequency of occurrence.
e following graph shows an example of such a simulation:
Monte Carlo simulation .
Frequency of occurrence
in one million simulation steps (incidence density)
Bandwidth with probability
– aa m+ bb m+ zz m
Deviation from planned
Planned Most common value in one million simulation steps (“mode”)
“Worse than expected” “Better than expected”
Financial position, page
84