DHL 2015 Annual Report Download - page 105

Deutsche Post  Group —  Annual Report
Global economy: growth forecast .

2015 2016
World trade volumes 2.6 3.4
Real gross domestic product
World 3.1 3.4
Industrial countries 1.9 2.1
Emerging markets 4.0 4.3
Central and Eastern Europe 3.4 3.1
 countries –2.8 0.0
Emerging markets in Asia 6.6 6.3
Middle East and North Africa 2.5 3.6
Latin America and the Caribbean – 0.3 – 0.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.5 4.0
Source: International Monetary Fund  World Economic Outlook, January  update.
Growth rates calculated on the basis ofpurchasing power parity.
e Chinese economy is likely to remain muted. No major momentum is expected from
the export sector. e structural changes associated with transitioning to a greater focus
upon growing the domestic economy are proving a long-term challenge for the govern-
ment.  growth is expected to soen notably : . ; : .  . e Japanese
economy is likely to expand at a cautious pace, growing somewhat but at a low level
:. , : . ; : .  .
In the United States, private consumption will benet from a signicant drop in the
unemployment rate and lower energy prices. By contrast, exports will suer from the
weak global economic trend and the strong  dollar. All in all,  may increase
slightly more in  than in the previous year : . ; : . ; : .  .
In the euro zone, the economic recovery is expected to accelerate slightly. Private
consumption will see solid growth thanks to low energy prices and rising employment.
A signicant increase in imports is likely to be oset by a similar expansion in exports,
which will benet from the weak euro.  is likely to see somewhat stronger growth
on the whole : . ; : . ; : .  .
Early indicators suggest that the German economy will continue to grow. Private
consumption and state spending will again rise notably. Momentum is also expected to
come from corporate investment and residential construction spending. Whilst exports
are likely to benet from the weak euro, the muted world economy will hinder growth.
Growth for  as a whole is expected to resemble that of the prior year (: . ;
Sachverständigenrat . ; : . ).
Crude oil listings are more likely to rise than fall from the current low level. However,
the substantial reserves stockpiled in  should prevent any sharp upward movement
in the price of oil.
e  will very probably maintain its key interest rate at the current level, al-
though it might lower the rate even further if the euro zone economy weakens. By
contrast, the  Federal Reserve is expected to gradually raise its key interest rate over
the course of the year, which could moderately increase capital market interest rates.
95
Group Management Report — EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS — Overall Board of Management assessment of the future
economic position — Forecast period — Future organisation — Future economic parameters