DHL 2015 Annual Report Download - page 107

Deutsche Post  Group —  Annual Report
Contract logistics market continues to grow
e trend towards outsourcing warehousing and distribution as well as the demand for
value-added logistics services continue. For this reason, projections indicate that the
market for contract logistics will continue to experience stable growth of around  .
Many companies prefer to outsource their logistics due to high cost pressure and increas-
ingly complex supply chains. Demand for supply chain services is expected to see par-
ticularly strong growth in rapidly growing countries such as India, where we benet from
a strong market position. Although the global economic environment remains uncertain,
we are well positioned in the Supply Chain division to deliver sustained growth.
Revenue and earnings forecast
Consolidated  of . billion to . billion expected
We expect the global economy to continue to experience regional variations in  and
to grow only moderately on the whole. e global trading volumes relevant to our busi-
ness are likely to perform similarly. Revenue performance is anticipated to reect our
strategic focus on business driven by e-commerce and on emerging economies evidenc-
ing strong structural growth. Aer the transformation costs incurred in the reporting
year, we expect a substantial rise in earnings in , especially in the  divisions.
Against this backdrop, we expect consolidated  to reach between . billion
and . billion in nancial year . e Post - eCommerce - Parcel division is likely
to contribute more than . billion to this gure. Compared with the previous year, we
expect a signicant improvement in overall earnings to between . billion and
. billion in the  divisions. All of the  divisions are expected to contribute to
the increase. Whereas earnings in the Express division are likely to continue rising
steadily, a signicant improvement is expected for Global Forwarding, Freight and
Supply Chain now that the charges incurred in connection with the transformation
process will no longer arise. e Corporate Center / Other result is projected to remain
at around –. billion.
In line with our Group strategy, we plan to focus upon organic growth and antici-
pate only a few very selective acquisitions in , as in the previous year.
Our nance strategy continues to call for a payout of   to   of net prots as
dividends as a general rule. At the Annual General Meeting on  May , we intend
to propose to the shareholders that a dividend per share of . be paid for nancial
year  (previous year: .).
Expected financial position
No change in the Group’s credit rating
In light of the earnings forecast for , we expect the “ to debt” indicator to remain
stable on the whole and do not expect the rating agencies to change our credit rating
from the present level.
Liquidity to remain solid
We anticipate a deterioration in our liquidity in the rst half of  as a result of the
annual pension prepayment due to Bundesanstalt für Post und Telekommunikation as
97
Group Management Report — EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS — Future economic parameters — Revenue and earnings forecast —
Expected financial position