DHL 2014 Annual Report Download - page 105

In the euro zone, the economy is forecast to recover gradually. Private consumption
is likely to rise. Gross xed capital formation is also expected to expand from its cur-
rently very low level. Government spending, however, is projected to rise only slightly.
No notable growth momentum is expected from foreign trade. All in all,  growth is
projected to increase somewhat but still remain modest (: . ; : . ; Global
Insight: . ).
Early indicators suggest that the German economy will revive gradually. Exports are
expected to register strong growth and companies to gradually expand capital expend-
iture. Private consumption could turn into the most important driver of growth. e
number of employed people is likely to rise again on the annual average. Due to the weak
starting position, however, it is nonetheless questionable whether  growth will be as
strong as in the prior year (: . , Sachverständigenrat: . ; Global Insight: . ).
e expected revival of the global economy is likely to increase demand for crude
oil. Since it is improbable that the supply will rise signicantly in light of the low prices,
it is more likely than not that prices will rise again in .
e  will very probably maintain its key interest rate at the current level for some
time and implement the decisions taken at the start of . By contrast, the  Federal
Reserve could raise its key interest rate slightly in , which could lead to a moderate
increase in capital market interest rates.
World trade grows, thanks especially to Asia
e emerging markets in Asia are expected to play a signicant role in the growth of
global trade again in . At . , growth in global trade volumes (transported quan-
tity in tonnes) is forecast to be overall slightly higher in  compared with  due
to the slight improvement in the economic climate in the industrial countries.
The mail and parcel business in the digital age
e market for paper-based mail communication continues to decline in Germany,
though more moderately than in other European countries. Mail volumes are decreasing,
primarily because people are increasingly communicating digitally rather than physic-
ally. With -, we have developed a portfolio of digital products that are gaining
traction in the German market. At the beginning of , we increased postage for a
standard domestic letter slightly in accordance with the price-cap procedure. Although
prices were subject to a further slight increase at the beginning of , they are still
below the European average.
e German advertising market saw a nominal increase in revenues in . Mod-
erate growth is also expected in . Similar to the mail business, advertising budgets
are increasingly being shied to digital media. e trend is towards personalised, cross-
media campaigns. We intend to consolidate our position in the market for paper-based
advertising. Furthermore, we want to tap into new elds by developing new technologies
for online marketing and cross-media campaigns.
Glossary, page 
Deutsche Post  Group —  Annual Report
99
Group Management Report — EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS — Future economic parameters