Mercedes 2012 Annual Report Download - page 129

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investment after last year’s economic blip, and that the Indian
economy can overcome its phase of weakness. But growth
should also occur in 2013 in those economies of Central and
Eastern Europe which were still in recession last year. How-
ever, the growth weakness of the major sales markets of West-
ern Europe will prevent a more favorable development. In
the Middle East, considerable geopolitical tension is worsening
the economic outlook. Further escalation could lead for
example to large fluctuations in the price of oil.
In total therefore, global economic output could expand
by approximately 2.5% to 3% at best in 2013. This would then
be another below-average year in a long-term comparison.
Another factor is that the world economy remains very sensi-
tive to external disturbances. In this difficult environment,
monetary policy will continue to be expansive and supportive,
but at the expense in the medium term of an increased risk
of inflation and possibly of bubbles being created in the asset
and commodity markets.
With regard to the currencies important for our business,
we continue to anticipate sharp exchange-rate fluctuations.
Automotive markets
According to current estimates, worldwide demand for auto-
mobiles is likely to grow this year by approximately 2 to 4%.
This growth should be primarily driven by the ongoing expan-
sion of the Chinese market and a moderate increase in
demand in the United States. No impetus is to be expected
from the Western European market, however. Demand in
Japan will probably decrease significantly, with a perceptible
negative impact on the growth of the world market.
In the US car market, after three years in succession with
double-digit growth rates, significantly more moderate growth
in demand is anticipated for this year. This is due on the
one hand to the fact that the market has meanwhile returned
to a respectable size and on the other hand to the below-
average development of the US economy. The ongoing weak-
ness of the economy and the still unresolved sovereign-
debt crisis in the euro zone will continue to significantly dampen
demand for cars in Western Europe. From today’s perspective,
a further, but more moderate, market decline is to be expected,
so new registrations will remain at their lowest level in 20
years. The German market should be about as big as last year;
but from today’s perspective, a slight decrease cannot be
ruled out, depending on further economic developments.
The Japanese market was driven last year by catch-up effects
and state incentives for car buyers. Following the expiry
of those special effects, a significant drop in demand must
be assumed for 2013.
For the car markets of the emerging economies, growth
prospects are relatively favorable overall, whereby market
developments are likely to display considerable regional differ-
ences. According to current estimates, growth in demand
in the Chinese market could be rather stronger than last year.
The premium segment should once again expand more
dynamically than the total market. In India, the market volume
will probably increase at a similar rate to that of 2012.
In contrast, the number of cars sold in Russia should rise
at a rather low rate.
Worldwide demand for medium and heavy trucks can
be expected to increase perceptibly in 2013. However, this
will mainly be driven by the significant recovery in China,
which was responsible for a large proportion of the global
drop in demand last year.
In North America, we anticipate a decline of 5 to 10%.
This is due on the one hand to a recognizable market slow-
down in the second half of 2012, and on the other hand
to ongoing unwillingness to invest in the private sector because
of the fiscal problems in the United States. For the European
truck market, we expect demand to fall by up to 5% due
to the ongoing weak economic environment. The Japanese
market should be at about the prior-year level, following
the expiry of certain special effects in connection with the
reconstruction there. A significant recovery of up to 10%
is expected for the Brazilian market thanks to better economic
prospects and the continuation of favorable financing con-
ditions. The Russian market has meanwhile returned to its level
of before the global financial crisis and should expand
moderately once again in 2013.
We expect the European van market to decline by approxi-
mately 5% in the year 2013, with demand in the southern
countries in particular remaining weak. The outlook is positive
for the United States, where we expect further expansion
of the market for large vans. In Latin America, the market
for large vans should expand again after the significant decline
of last year. In China, we assume that our targeted market
segment will recover slightly.
We expect a stable development of bus markets in Western
Europe, with a market volume slightly higher than in 2012.
Demand for buses in Latin America should increase again
moderately after the distinct decline in 2012. In Brazil, the bus
market should revive again in the medium term, also in
connection with the upcoming soccer World Cup in 2014 and
the Olympic Games in 2016.
Independently of the markets’ economic fluctuations, the
regional distribution of demand has shifted significantly
in recent years. The importance of the emerging markets has
increased enormously not only for the industry as a whole,
but especially for manufacturers of premium vehicles, and the
trend is likely to continue in the coming years. This creates
great challenges for the industry regarding production sites and
flexibility, as well as the requirements of differing customers
in a global market. Another factor is the continuing and increas-
ing need to invest in fuel-efficient and future-oriented tech-
nologies and to develop and supply innovative and sustainable
mobility and transport solutions.