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3 | Management Report | Risk Report | Outlook
The statements made in the Outlook chapter are generally
based on the operational planning of Daimler AG as approved
by the Board of Management and Supervisory Board in
December 2012 for the years 2013 and 2014. This planning
is based on premises regarding the economic situation,
which are derived from assessments made by renowned eco-
nomic institutions, and on the targets set by our divisions.
The prospects for our future business development as presented
here reflect the opportunities and risks offered by anticipated
market conditions and the competitive situation. We are con-
stantly adjusting our expectations, taking into account the
latest forecasts on the development of the world economy and
of automotive markets, as well as our recent business devel-
opment. The statements made below are based on the knowl-
edge available to us in February 2013.
World economy
The world economy started the year 2013 with only moderate
momentum. The global economy is generally following a
sideways movement at the beginning of the year and should
therefore at least have left the falling growth rates of last
year behind. Nonetheless, the situation remains very difficult
and no significant acceleration is to be expected – if at all –
before the second half of the year. As in 2012, the world eco-
nomic outlook is still affected by the difficult situation in
the industrialized countries. And developments in the European
Monetary Union (EMU) are still particularly critical. Although
the various measures taken by the European Central Bank have
significantly reduced the risks of the disintegration of the
EMU, the underlying problems of the sovereign-debt crisis are
far from solved. It must therefore be assumed also for the
year 2013 that particularly in Europe, the crisis of confidence
amongst investors and consumers will last a long time.
Against this backdrop, the economic outlook for the EMU
worsened perceptibly at the beginning of this year. After last
year’s recession, gross domestic product is likely to remain
flat at best in 2013. Although the overall dampening effects on
economic growth of the austerity measures should be weaker
than in 2012, the unchanged need for fiscal consolidation efforts
continues to restrict domestic demand. So this year, not only
small peripheral countries, but also larger economies such as
Italy and Spain will once again post decreases in their GDP.
While a number of other countries will at best achieve marginal
growth, the German economy is likely to develop better than
the EMU average once again. But also Germany will find it very
difficult to achieve growth of more than 1%, and the consensus
expectations at the beginning of the year are distinctly lower
than that.
The economic outlook for the United States is significantly better
than for Europe, and the currently available leading indicators
confirm this picture. At the turn of the year, the dominant eco-
nomic issue was avoiding the so-called “fiscal cliff” resulting
from the discontinuation of fiscal stimuli on the one hand and
automatic budget cuts on the other. Although agreement was
finally reached between US politicians to avoid most of the neg-
ative fiscal effects on the economy that would otherwise have
occurred in the first quarter, public debt remains a serious prob-
lem in the United States. With forecast GDP growth of approx-
imately 2%, the prospects for the US economy therefore remain
limited. In Japan, growth expectations had fallen so substan-
tially below 1% that in January, the new government announced
a stimulus program and the central bank announced additional
expansive monetary measures.
In view of the economically rather disappointing industrialized
countries with hardly more than 1% growth, the emerging
markets will once again be the drivers of the world economy.
In total, the emerging economies should grow by approxi-
mately 5% in 2013, and would thus account for three quarters
of global growth. It will be of overriding importance that
economic stabilization in China makes further progress
and that the measures initiated take effect so that economic
growth in the magnitude of about 8% is possible. It will also
be important that Brazil gains perceptible impetus from increased
Outlook