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Further Developments and Outlook Group Management Report
Deutsche Post World Net Annual Report 2007
Buoyed by both external trade and domestic demand, the Japanese economy is likely
to expand further. Growth of between 1.6% and 1.8% appears feasible. China also
remains on course for additional growth. A GDP advance of around 10% is anticipated
for 2008.
e euro zone will maintain its upswing but at a slower pace. Its economy will con-
tinue to be driven by domestic demand, however foreign trade will restrain growth
in the euro zone slightly, especially because of the strong euro. At 2.0%, expansion in
the euro zone will be slower than in 2007 overall (IMF: 1.6%, OECD: 1.9%, Postbank
Research: 2.0%).
e German economy is likely to remain programmed for growth but lose some of
its vigour. anks to a fall in unemployment, higher collective pay agreements and
therefore elevated income, an appreciable invigoration of private consumption is
anticipated. With GDP advancing by some 2%, the upswing in Germany is expected
to be sustained (OECD: 1.8%, German Council of Economic Experts: 1.9%, Postbank
Research: 2.1%).
It is anticipated that the situation in the oil market will ease slightly as 2008 unfolds.
In January 2008, the US Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by an additional
1.25 percentage points to 3.0% because of the economic risks that exist in the USA but
further decreases are to be expected only if the economy enters a recession.
Given the persistent uncertainty of the economic climate, the ECB is likely to hold its
key interest rate for the time being.
Mail business in the year of market liberalisation
e demand for mail in Germany depends primarily on the economic climate and
the extent to which electronic media such as fax, e-mail, text messaging and the
internet take the place of the conventional letter. We expect the domestic market for
mail communication to continue shrinking in the coming years. Full liberalisation
of the market will also serve to reduce our share but we have prepared ourselves for
the forthcoming changes.
Further moderate growth and a sustained trend towards targeted advertising are
anticipated in the German advertising market. Although the market for paper-based
advertising was opened up at the beginning of 2008, we intend to consolidate our
position in this segment and to build on it in the advertising market as a whole. e
press services market is likely to contract somewhat because of the increasing use of
new media. We are seeking to maintain our revenue position here also by drawing
on the growing signi cance of subscriptions.