DHL 2008 Annual Report Download - page 98
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Deutsche Post World Net Annual Report 2008
Report on expected developments
Global economy in recession
At the start of , the global economy nds itself in a major recession. Govern-
ments and central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have taken extensive action
to counteract the negative impact of the nancial market crisis on the eco n omy but
uncertainty remains unusually high. e International Monetary Fund expects
global economic output to grow by only . in – recession level for the global
economy. In this climate, global trade is likely to shrink or grow only slightly (:
– . , : . ).
Growth forecasts
2008 2009
Global trade volume 4.1 –2.8
Real gross domestic product
Global 3.4 0.5
Industrial nations 1.0 − 2.0
Emerging markets 6.3 3.3
Central and Eastern Europe 3.2 – 0.4
Former CIS states 6.0 – 0.4
Emerging markets in Asia 7.8 5.5
Middle East 6.1 3.9
Latin America and the Caribbean 4.6 1.1
Africa 5.2 3.4
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2008; update, January 2009.
In the United States, even the economic measures planned by the government
hardly seem su cient to prevent a decline in (: − . , : − . , Postbank
Rese arch: − . ).
Due to its high dependency on exports, the Japanese economy is likely to be
badly hit by the global downturn. It faces a slump of between − . and − .
(Postbank Research). In China, is expected to continue its advance but, at .
, at a clearly slower rate than in previous years.
e downswing in the euro zone looks set to continue. Over the course of the
year, the ’s substantial interest rate reductions, the lower oil price, the weaker euro
and the economic measures planned by the countries should gradually start to take
e ect. Nevertheless, is expected to fall for the rst time in the history of the mon-
etary union (European Commission: − . , Postbank Research: − . ).
In all likelihood, the German economy will also contract substantially. is
will notably a ect exports and corporate investments and, as a consequence, jobs and
private consumption. Opinions about whether and how far could fall vary widely
(German government: –., Kiel Institute for the World Economy: − . , Postbank
Research: − . ).
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