DHL 2002 Annual Report Download - page 20

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19
2002 was another disappointing year on the international stock markets. The recovery
on the stock exchanges in the first quarter quickly proved to be little more than a flash
in the pan. Recessive tendencies in the global economy, accounting scandals in the
US and fears of a potential war against Iraq caused increasing uncertainty among
investors in H2/2002. As a result, the major share indices hit a series of new multi-year
lows throughout the year: in the period between January 1 and December 31, 2002,
the DAX share index plunged 43.9% while the Euro STOXX 50 fell 37.3%. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average also dropped 17.7% in the period under review.
Despite the worsening economic outlook, key interest rates in the US remained
unchanged until October 6, 2002. On this date, the Federal Reserve Bank cut interest
rates by 50 base points to 1.25%, the lowest level in 40 years. In contrast, the European
Central Bank initially held the key interest rate stable until December 5 in order to
ensure sufficient central bank money for the banking industry. In the end, however,
the ECB also cut rates by 50 base points to 2.75%.
External factors interrupt trend towards outperformance
Deutsche Post stock performed broadly in line with the overall market in the year
under review. Our share price proved particularly resistant in the first half of the year,
getting off to a strong start and reaching a 52-week high of €17.48 on March 25, 2002.
For the most part, our shares were able to outperform the DAX until mid-June.
Our share price came under additional pressure due to two negative external
events in the summer: on July 10, 2002, the Regulierungsbehörde für Telekommuni-
kation und Post (RegTP – Regulatory Authority for Telecommunications and Posts)
announced its intended decision to decrease letter rates. The resulting drops in the
Group’s revenue and earnings will total around €300 million a year between 2003
and 2007 for a cumulative sum of €1.5 billion. Investors were quick to react to
this news: Deutsche Post stock lost approximately 10% of its value in the course of
a single day.
We suffered a second setback with the European Commission’s state aid ruling
on July 19. According to this ruling, Deutsche Post AG must repay the Federal Republic
of Germany €907 million (including interest) in allegedly unjustified state aid. The
announcement of this ruling led to yet another drop in our share price that could not
be recouped in the period that followed. An upward trend only emerged with the
announcement of the STAR program on October 31, 2002.
The Group
Deutsche Post Stock and Bonds
Deutsche Post stock
DAX 30
TPG
12/28/01 12/28/0208/28/02 10/28/0206/28/0204/28/0202/28/02
120
100
80
60
40
in %
Deutsche Post share price development
For additional information on Deutsche Post stock and bonds,
please see our Web page at http://investorrelations.dpwn.de