Porsche 2012 Annual Report Download - page 144

Forecast report and outlook
Overall economic development
In the past fiscal year 2012, the global economy
grew less strongly than in 2011. Despite current
uncertainties, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
expects gradual global growth for the current year.
The IMF sees the euro zone as a great downside
risk for the global economy. The economists expect
moderate rates of increase for economic growth in
the USA. The key impetus for global economic
development is expected to come from the emerg-
ing countries in Asia and South America. The main
growth driver will again be China. The IMF fore-
casts economic growth of 0.6 percent for Germany
for 2013.
Exchange rate development
The global economic uncertainties in 2012 impact-
ed market players’ expectations resulting in mas-
sive exchange rate fluctuations. The euro appreci-
ated against the US dollar during the first two
months of the year. The euro lost in value until the
middle of the year, then recovered again as the
year progressed. Although the financial markets
remain highly volatile, for 2013 and 2014 Porsche
SE expects the euro to be stable against the US
dollar, the British pound (sterling), the Chinese
renminbi and other major currencies. However, the
risk of unforeseeable market developments has
increased.
Development of interest rates
In 2012, interest rates continued to be very low as a
result of expansive monetary policy. Porsche SE
considers a departure from this policy to be unlikely
for 2013 and therefore regards increases in interest
rates in Europe and the USA to be unlikely. Porsche
SE expects interest rates to increase in 2014 only in
the event of rising inflation rates.
Commodity price development
Commodity prices in the past year were high and
also characterized by a high level of volatility. At
the beginning of 2012, commodity prices in-
creased, but quickly decreased again during the
first quarter due to lower growth forecasts. Follow-
ing a renewed increase in prices in the third quar-
ter, they fell again at the end of the year. On the
basis of current assumptions regarding global
financial growth, Porsche SE expects the price of
listed commodities to remain high during the next
two years.
Prospects on the automotive markets
In our opinion, the worldwide automotive market
will see tentatively positive development, with
expected growth rates tending to stagnate or fall in
Europe and Germany. Porsche SE sees Asia, and
China in particular, as strong growth drivers in all
vehicle segments. In North America, further growth
is to be expected.
2The company
Group management report
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