Mercedes 2009 Annual Report Download - page 116

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Automotive markets
According to current estimates, worldwide demand for motor
vehi
cles in the year 2010 will increase by between 3 and 4% com-
pared to crisis year 2009. In the United States, the market for
cars and so-called light trucks should recover gradually from its
present low level after the recent massive slumps. The end of
scrappage bonuses or the gradual expiry of those programs will
place a substantial burden on demand for cars in Western Europe,
above all in the volume and small-car segments, so a decrease
in new car registrations compared to the prior year is to be expect-
ed in the overall market of Western Europe. Germany, which
experienced the strongest growth of all Western European markets
in 2009 thanks to the “environmental bonus,” will probably suffer
a double-digit drop in demand this year. The car market in Japan
could expand compared to the prior year, because the state
incentive program has been extended until the end of September
2010. From today’s perspective, demand for cars in the emerging
markets should grow moderately in 2010. Markets such as Russia,
which went through a deep crisis last year, should recover
somewhat while remaining at a low level. The markets of China
and India, which boomed in 2009 due to substantial tax incen-
tives for car buyers, are likely to continue growing from those
record levels – although less dynamically than last year. On a
global scale, growth in the upper premium segments of the auto-
mobile markets will probably be more pronounced than in the
market as a whole, because those segments hardly profited in the
prior year from the state programs and thus need not expect
any corresponding setbacks in the current year.
Worldwide demand for commercial vehicles should also grow
again moderately after the severe crisis of last year. In the NAFTA
region, we anticipate a market recovery of 10 to 15% for medium
and heavy-duty trucks after three consecutive years of significant
shrinkage. In Europe, demand for commercial vehicles above
6 tons will probably be slightly higher than in 2009. In Japan,
how ever, following a weak 2009, no revival of demand for medi-
um and heavy-duty trucks is to be expected. The major markets
for trucks in the newly developing countries are likely to enjoy a
moderate recovery in 2010. Demand in Russia and Eastern Europe
should stabilize and increase during the course of the year. In
Brazil and India, a recovery of demand for trucks is also to be
expected after the market decline of 2009. China will remain
the world’s biggest market for medium and heavy-duty trucks by
a large margin, and should maintain its high level of demand.
The current crisis of the automobile industry coincides with a
phase of fundamental technological change. This not only requires
substantial expenditure for research and development, but
also entails a process of structural adjustment affecting the entire
industry, including the supply chain. Key challenges include not
only shifts in demand between segments and regions, but above
all the addition to the product range of fuel-efficient and envi-
ronmentally friendly vehicles and transport solutions. There will
be an increasing focus on new concepts for sustainable mobility.
Those automobile manufacturers that take an active approach to
these changes will have excellent future growth prospects.
Opportunities will also be presented by the application of new
technologies in drive systems. Those companies that play a
leading role in this respect will profit from the large-scale replace-
ment of existing vehicles with more environmentally friendly
and fuel-efficient vehicles. But ultimately, the ability to stand out
from the competition with innovations, exciting products and
strong brands will be an increasingly important factor for success.