Mercedes 2009 Annual Report Download - page 115

Management Report |Outlook |111
The statements made in the Outlook section are generally based
on the operational planning of Daimler AG as approved by the
Board of Management and Supervisory Board in December 2009
for the years 2010 and 2011. This planning is based on premises
regarding the economic situation, which are derived from assess-
ments made by renowned economic institutions, and on the
targets set by our divisions. The prospects for our future business
development presented here reflect the opportunities and risks
offered by anticipated market conditions and the competitive sit-
uation. We are constantly adjusting our expectations, taking
into account the latest forecasts on the development of the world
economy and of automotive markets as well as our recent busi-
ness development. The statements made below are based on the
knowledge available to us in February 2010.
World economy
At the beginning of the year 2010, the world economy is still in a
period of transition. On the one hand, we have meanwhile passed
the lowest point of the worst economic crisis of the post-war
period; on the other hand, there is very little hard evidence that a
self-sustaining, lasting upswing has actually started. The recent
positive growth rates of the real economy are partially the result of
special or one-time effects, whose positive impetus will lose
strength as the year progresses. This applies in particular to the
gradually fading contributions to growth from the restocking of
inventories. And the state economic stimulus programs are likely
to reach the phase of maximum effect on growth in the middle
of the year. Negative economic effects – especially in the industri-
alized countries – will come from the labor markets. The increase
in unemployment levels that has occurred so far during the crisis
should pass its peak in most countries in the coming months,
but no rapid reduction is in sight. In combination with somewhat
higher inflation rates than in the prior year and rather moderate
growth in incomes, this is already dampening the prospects for
growth in private consumption.
But investment activity is being held back also by the ongoing
situation of insufficient utilization of industrial capacity. It is
unclear how the continuing need for consolidation of the financial
market – and especially the banks – will affect the real economy.
It can be expected, however, that it will result in rather negative
effects – above all in view of the need for credit to finance the
upswing. The continued solid growth of the emerging markets and
the noticeable increase in world trade are exerting positive
effects on the global economy, with strong growth impetus in
particular from Asia. But the economies of South America, the
Middle East and Eastern Europe should also expand again appre-
ciably. This will be to the benefit of all export-oriented economies,
and thus also to Germany. In recent months, the prospects for
growth of the world economy in 2010 have therefore improved
from 2% to nearly 3%.
The main risks for the global economy are once again to be
seen in turmoil resulting from the financial and capital markets,
a pronounced credit tightening, or excessive increases in raw-
material prices. But the upward development we anticipate could
also be jeopardized by deflationary tendencies, increasing pro-
tectionism, or a slump in growth rates in the emerging markets.
But there is also the real chance that the state incentive programs
and accompanying monetary policy will trigger quicker and more
stable growth dynamism of the world economy, so higher growth
rates are also possible.
With regard to the development of important currencies in 2010,
we assume that the US dollar will tend to weaken against the
euro compared to the average exchange rate in 2009. We expect
the British pound and the Japanese yen to appreciate slightly
against the euro on average for the year, whereby exchange-rate
volatility is likely to increase.
Outlook