Goldman Sachs 2015 Annual Report Download - page 154

THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements
Range of Significant Unobservable Inputs
The following is information about the ranges of significant
unobservable inputs used to value the firm’s level 3
derivative instruments:
‰Correlation. Ranges for correlation cover a variety of
underliers both within one market (e.g., equity index and
equity single stock names) and across markets (e.g.,
correlation of an interest rate and a foreign exchange
rate), as well as across regions. Generally, cross-product
correlation inputs are used to value more complex
instruments and are lower than correlation inputs on
assets within the same derivative product type.
‰Volatility. Ranges for volatility cover numerous
underliers across a variety of markets, maturities and
strike prices. For example, volatility of equity indices is
generally lower than volatility of single stocks.
‰Credit spreads, upfront credit points and recovery
rates. The ranges for credit spreads, upfront credit points
and recovery rates cover a variety of underliers (index and
single names), regions, sectors, maturities and credit
qualities (high-yield and investment-grade). The broad
range of this population gives rise to the width of the
ranges of significant unobservable inputs.
‰Commodity prices and spreads. The ranges for
commodity prices and spreads cover variability in
products, maturities and locations.
Sensitivity of Fair Value Measurement to Changes
in Significant Unobservable Inputs
The following is a description of the directional sensitivity
of the firm’s level 3 fair value measurements to changes in
significant unobservable inputs, in isolation:
‰Correlation. In general, for contracts where the holder
benefits from the convergence of the underlying asset or
index prices (e.g., interest rates, credit spreads, foreign
exchange rates, inflation rates and equity prices), an
increase in correlation results in a higher fair value
measurement.
‰Volatility. In general, for purchased options, an increase
in volatility results in a higher fair value measurement.
‰Credit spreads, upfront credit points and recovery
rates. In general, the fair value of purchased credit
protection increases as credit spreads or upfront credit
points increase or recovery rates decrease. Credit spreads,
upfront credit points and recovery rates are strongly
related to distinctive risk factors of the underlying
reference obligations, which include reference entity-
specific factors such as leverage, volatility and industry,
market-based risk factors, such as borrowing costs or
liquidity of the underlying reference obligation, and
macroeconomic conditions.
‰Commodity prices and spreads. In general, for
contracts where the holder is receiving a commodity, an
increase in the spread (price difference from a benchmark
index due to differences in quality or delivery location) or
price results in a higher fair value measurement.
Due to the distinctive nature of each of the firm’s level 3
derivatives, the interrelationship of inputs is not necessarily
uniform within each product type.
142 Goldman Sachs 2015 Form 10-K