Goldman Sachs 2015 Annual Report Download - page 117

THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Stress Tests
We use regular stress tests to calculate the credit exposures,
including potential concentrations that would result from
applying shocks to counterparty credit ratings or credit risk
factors (e.g., currency rates, interest rates, equity prices).
These shocks include a wide range of moderate and more
extreme market movements. Some of our stress tests
include shocks to multiple risk factors, consistent with the
occurrence of a severe market or economic event. In the
case of sovereign default, we estimate the direct impact of
the default on our sovereign credit exposures, changes to
our credit exposures arising from potential market moves in
response to the default, and the impact of credit market
deterioration on corporate borrowers and counterparties
that may result from the sovereign default. Unlike potential
exposure, which is calculated within a specified confidence
level, with a stress test there is generally no assumed
probability of these events occurring.
We run stress tests on a regular basis as part of our routine
risk management processes and conduct tailored stress tests
on an ad hoc basis in response to market developments.
Stress tests are regularly conducted jointly with our market
and liquidity risk functions.
Model Review and Validation
Our potential credit exposure and stress testing models, and
any changes to such models or assumptions, are reviewed
by Model Risk Management. See “Model Risk
Management” for further information about the review
and validation of these models.
Risk Mitigants
To reduce our credit exposures on derivatives and securities
financing transactions, we may enter into netting
agreements with counterparties that permit us to offset
receivables and payables with such counterparties. We may
also reduce credit risk with counterparties by entering into
agreements that enable us to obtain collateral from them on
an upfront or contingent basis and/or to terminate
transactions if the counterparty’s credit rating falls below a
specified level. We monitor the fair value of the collateral
on a daily basis to ensure that our credit exposures are
appropriately collateralized. We seek to minimize
exposures where there is a significant positive correlation
between the creditworthiness of our counterparties and the
market value of collateral we receive.
For loans and lending commitments, depending on the
credit quality of the borrower and other characteristics of
the transaction, we employ a variety of potential risk
mitigants. Risk mitigants include: collateral provisions,
guarantees, covenants, structural seniority of the bank loan
claims and, for certain lending commitments, provisions in
the legal documentation that allow us to adjust loan
amounts, pricing, structure and other terms as market
conditions change. The type and structure of risk mitigants
employed can significantly influence the degree of credit
risk involved in a loan or lending commitment.
When we do not have sufficient visibility into a
counterparty’s financial strength or when we believe a
counterparty requires support from its parent, we may
obtain third-party guarantees of the counterparty’s
obligations. We may also mitigate our credit risk using
credit derivatives or participation agreements.
Credit Exposures
As of December 2015, our credit exposures increased as
compared with December 2014, primarily reflecting
increases in loans and lending commitments. The
percentage of our credit exposure arising from non-
investment-grade counterparties (based on our internally
determined public rating agency equivalents) increased as
compared with December 2014, primarily reflecting an
increase in loans and lending commitments. During 2015,
the number of counterparty defaults decreased as compared
with 2014, and such defaults primarily occurred within
loans and lending commitments. The total number of
counterparty defaults remained low, representing less than
0.5% of all counterparties. Estimated losses associated with
counterparty defaults were lower compared with the prior
year and were not material to the firm. Our credit
exposures are described further below.
Cash and Cash Equivalents. Cash and cash equivalents
include both interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing
deposits. To mitigate the risk of credit loss, we place
substantially all of our deposits with highly-rated banks
and central banks.
OTC Derivatives. Our credit exposure on OTC derivatives
arises primarily from our market-making activities. As a
market maker, we enter into derivative transactions to
provide liquidity to clients and to facilitate the transfer and
hedging of their risks. We also enter into derivatives to
manage market risk exposures. We manage our credit
exposure on OTC derivatives using the credit risk process,
measures, limits and risk mitigants described above.
Goldman Sachs 2015 Form 10-K 105