Prudential 2001 Annual Report Download - page 97

Prudential Financial, Inc.
that approximate those of the benchmark indices. We estimate our equity price risk from a hypothetical 10% decline
in equity benchmark market levels and measure this risk in terms of the decline in fair market value of equity
securities we hold. Using this methodology, our estimated equity price risk at December 31, 2001 was $227 million,
representing a hypothetical decline in fair market value of equity securities we held at that date from $2.272 billion
to $2.045 billion. Of our $227 million estimated equity price risk at December 31, 2001, approximately $90 million
relates to Gibraltar Life. Our estimated equity price risk using this methodology at December 31, 2000 was $232
million, representing a hypothetical decline in fair market value of equity securities we held at that date from $2.317
billion to $2.085 billion. In calculating these amounts, we exclude equity securities related to products for which the
investment risk is borne primarily by the contractholder rather than by us. While these scenarios are for illustrative
purposes only and do not reflect our expectations regarding future performance of equity markets or of our equity
portfolio, they represent near term reasonably possible hypothetical changes that illustrate the potential impact of
such events.
Market Risk Related to Foreign Currency Exchange Rates
We are exposed to foreign currency exchange rate risk in our general account and through our operations in foreign
countries. In our international life insurance business, we generally invest in assets denominated in the same
currencies as our insurance liabilities, which mitigates our foreign currency exchange rate risk for these operations.
Our exposure to foreign currency risk within the general account investment portfolios supporting our U.S.
insurance operations arises primarily from purchased investments that are denominated or payable in foreign
currencies. We generally hedge substantially all foreign currency-denominated fixed-income investments supporting
our U.S. operations into U.S. dollars, using foreign exchange forward contracts and currency swaps, in order to
mitigate the risk that the fair value of these investments fluctuates as a result of changes in foreign exchange rates.
We generally do not hedge all of the foreign currency risk of our equity investments in unaffiliated foreign entities.
Our operations in foreign countries create two additional sources of foreign currency risk. First, we reflect the
operating results of our foreign branches and subsidiaries in our financial statements based on the average exchange
rates prevailing during the period. We hedge some of these foreign currency flows based on our overall risk
management strategy and loss limits. We generally hedge our anticipated exposure to adjusted operating income
fluctuations resulting from changes in foreign currency exchange rates relating to our International operations in
Japan, of which our Japanese insurance operations are the most significant, using foreign exchange forward
contracts and currency swaps. Second, we translate our equity investment in foreign branches and subsidiaries into
U.S. dollars using the foreign currency exchange rate at the financial statement period-end date. We have chosen to
partially hedge this exposure.
We actively manage foreign currency exchange rate risk within specified limits at the consolidated level using
Value-at-Risk analysis. This statistical technique estimates, at a specified confidence level, the potential pretax loss
in portfolio market value that could occur over an assumed time horizon due to adverse market movements. We
calculate this using a variance/covariance approach.
We calculate Value-at-Risk estimates of exposure to loss from volatility in foreign currency exchange rates for one-
month time periods. Our estimated VaR at December 31, 2001 for foreign currency assets not hedged to U.S.
dollars, measured at the 95% confidence level and using a one-month time horizon, was $9 million, representing a
hypothetical decline in fair market value of these foreign currency assets from $495 million to $486 million. Our
estimated VaR at December 31, 2000 for foreign currency assets not hedged to U.S. dollars, measured at the 95%
confidence level and using a one-month time horizon, was $18 million, representing a hypothetical decline in fair
market value of these foreign currency assets from $906 million to $888 million. These calculations use historical
price volatilities and correlation data at a 95% confidence level. We discuss limitations of VaR models below. Our
estimated VaR for foreign exchange forward contracts and currency swaps used to hedge our anticipated exposure
to adjusted operating income fluctuations resulting from changes in foreign currency exchange rates relating to our
international operations, measured at the 95% confidence level and using a one-month time horizon, was $45
million at December 31, 2001 and $11 million at December 31, 2000.
Our average monthly Value-at-Risk for foreign currency assets not hedged to U.S. dollars from foreign currency
exchange rate movements, measured at the 95% confidence level over a one month time horizon, was $13 million
during 2001 and $16 million during 2000.
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