Ford 2014 Annual Report Download - page 96

Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk (Continued)
FORD CREDIT MARKET RISK
Overview. Ford Credit is exposed to a variety of risks in the normal course of its business activities. In addition to
counterparty risk discussed above, Ford Credit is subject to the following additional types of risks that it seeks to identify,
assess, monitor, and manage, in accordance with defined policies and procedures:
• Market risk - the possibility that changes in interest and currency exchange rates will adversely affect cash flow
and economic value;
• Credit risk - the possibility of loss from a customer’s failure to make payments according to contract terms;
• Residual risk - the possibility that the actual proceeds received at lease termination will be lower than projections
or return volumes will be higher than projections; and
• Liquidity risk - the possibility that Ford Credit may be unable to meet all of its current and future obligations in a
timely manner.
Each form of risk is uniquely managed in the context of its contribution to Ford Credit’s overall global risk. Business
decisions are evaluated on a risk-adjusted basis and services are priced consistent with these risks. Credit and residual
risks, as well as liquidity risk, are discussed above in Item 7. A discussion of Ford Credit’s market risks (interest rate risk
and foreign currency risk) is included below.
Interest Rate Risk. Generally, Ford Credit’s assets and the related debt have different re-pricing periods, and
consequently, respond differently to changes in interest rates.
Ford Credit’s assets consist primarily of fixed-rate retail installment sale and operating lease contracts and floating-
rate wholesale receivables. Fixed-rate retail installment sale and operating lease contracts generally require customers to
make equal monthly payments over the life of the contract. Wholesale receivables are originated to finance new and used
vehicles held in dealers’ inventory and generally require dealers to pay a floating rate.
Debt consists primarily of short- and long-term unsecured debt and securitizations. In the case of unsecured term
debt, and in an effort to have funds available throughout business cycles, Ford Credit may borrow at terms longer than the
terms of its assets, in most instances with maturities up to ten years. These debt instruments are principally fixed-rate
and require fixed and equal interest payments over the life of the instrument and a single principal payment at maturity.
Ford Credit’s interest rate risk management objective is to reduce volatility in its cash flows and volatility in its
economic value from changes in interest rates based on an established risk tolerance that may vary by market.
Ford Credit uses economic value sensitivity analysis and re-pricing gap analysis to evaluate potential long-term
effects of changes in interest rates. It then enters into interest rate swaps to convert portions of its floating-rate debt to
fixed or its fixed-rate debt to floating to ensure that Ford Credit’s exposure falls within the established tolerances. Ford
Credit also uses pre-tax cash flow sensitivity analysis to monitor the level of near-term cash flow exposure. The pre-tax
cash flow sensitivity analysis measures the changes in expected cash flows associated with Ford Credit’s interest-rate-
sensitive assets, liabilities, and derivative financial instruments from hypothetical changes in interest rates over a twelve-
month horizon. Ford Credit’s Asset-Liability Committee reviews the re-pricing mismatch and exposure every month and
approves interest rate swaps required to maintain exposure within approved thresholds prior to execution.
To provide a quantitative measure of the sensitivity of its pre-tax cash flow to changes in interest rates, Ford Credit
uses interest rate scenarios that assume a hypothetical, instantaneous increase or decrease of one percentage point in all
interest rates across all maturities (a “parallel shift”), as well as a base case that assumes that all interest rates remain
constant at existing levels. In reality, interest rate changes are rarely instantaneous or parallel and rates could move more
or less than the one percentage point assumed in Ford Credit’s analysis. As a result, the actual impact to pre-tax cash
flow could be higher or lower than the results detailed in the table below. These interest rate scenarios are purely
hypothetical and do not represent Ford Credit’s view of future interest rate movements.
Under these interest rate scenarios, Ford Credit expects more debt and liabilities than assets to re-price in the next
twelve months. Other things being equal, this means that during a period of rising interest rates, the interest earned on
Ford Credit’s assets will increase less than the interest paid on Ford Credit’s debt, thereby initially decreasing Ford
Credit’s pre-tax cash flow. During a period of falling interest rates, Ford Credit would expect its pre-tax cash flow to
initially increase. Ford Credit’s pre-tax cash flow sensitivity to interest rate movement is highlighted in the table below.
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