Goldman Sachs 2012 Annual Report Download - page 97

Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Risk Measures and Limits
We measure our credit risk based on the potential loss in an
event of non-payment by a counterparty. For derivatives
and securities financing transactions, the primary measure
is potential exposure, which is our estimate of the future
exposure that could arise over the life of a transaction based
on market movements within a specified confidence level.
Potential exposure takes into account netting and collateral
arrangements. For loans and lending commitments, the
primary measure is a function of the notional amount of the
position. We also monitor credit risk in terms of current
exposure, which is the amount presently owed to the firm
after taking into account applicable netting and collateral.
We use credit limits at various levels (counterparty,
economic group, industry, country) to control the size of
our credit exposures. Limits for counterparties and
economic groups are reviewed regularly and revised to
reflect changing appetites for a given counterparty or group
of counterparties. Limits for industries and countries are
based on the firm’s risk tolerance and are designed to allow
for regular monitoring, review, escalation and management
of credit risk concentrations.
Stress Tests/Scenario Analysis
We use regular stress tests to calculate the credit exposures,
including potential concentrations that would result from
applying shocks to counterparty credit ratings or credit risk
factors (e.g., currency rates, interest rates, equity prices).
These shocks include a wide range of moderate and more
extreme market movements. Some of our stress tests
include shocks to multiple risk factors, consistent with the
occurrence of a severe market or economic event. In the
case of sovereign default, we estimate the direct impact of
the default on our sovereign credit exposures, changes to
our credit exposures arising from potential market moves in
response to the default, and the impact of credit market
deterioration on corporate borrowers and counterparties
that may result from the sovereign default. Unlike potential
exposure, which is calculated within a specified confidence
level, with a stress test there is generally no assumed
probability of these events occurring.
We run stress tests on a regular basis as part of our routine
risk management processes and conduct tailored stress tests
on an ad hoc basis in response to market developments.
Stress tests are regularly conducted jointly with the firm’s
market and liquidity risk functions.
Risk Mitigants
To reduce our credit exposures on derivatives and securities
financing transactions, we may enter into netting
agreements with counterparties that permit us to offset
receivables and payables with such counterparties. We may
also reduce credit risk with counterparties by entering into
agreements that enable us to obtain collateral from them on
an upfront or contingent basis and/or to terminate
transactions if the counterparty’s credit rating falls below a
specified level.
For loans and lending commitments, depending on the
credit quality of the borrower and other characteristics of
the transaction, we employ a variety of potential risk
mitigants. Risk mitigants include: collateral provisions,
guarantees, covenants, structural seniority of the bank loan
claims and, for certain lending commitments, provisions in
the legal documentation that allow the firm to adjust loan
amounts, pricing, structure and other terms as market
conditions change. The type and structure of risk mitigants
employed can significantly influence the degree of credit
risk involved in a loan.
When we do not have sufficient visibility into a
counterparty’s financial strength or when we believe a
counterparty requires support from its parent company, we
may obtain third-party guarantees of the counterparty’s
obligations. We may also mitigate our credit risk using
credit derivatives or participation agreements.
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