Goldman Sachs 2012 Annual Report Download - page 92

Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Scenario analysis is used to quantify the impact of a
specified event, including how the event impacts multiple
risk factors simultaneously. For example, for sovereign
stress testing we calculate potential direct exposure
associated with our sovereign inventory as well as the
corresponding debt, equity and currency exposures
associated with our non-sovereign inventory that may be
impacted by the sovereign distress. When conducting
scenario analysis, we typically consider a number of
possible outcomes for each scenario, ranging from
moderate to severely adverse market impacts. In addition,
these stress tests are constructed using both historical events
and forward-looking hypothetical scenarios.
Firmwide stress testing combines market, credit,
operational and liquidity risks into a single combined
scenario. Firmwide stress tests are primarily used to assess
capital adequacy as part of the ICAAP process; however,
we also ensure that firmwide stress testing is integrated into
our risk governance framework. This includes selecting
appropriate scenarios to use for the ICAAP process. See
“Equity Capital — Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment
Process” above for further information about our
ICAAP process.
Unlike VaR measures, which have an implied probability
because they are calculated at a specified confidence level,
there is generally no implied probability that our stress test
scenarios will occur. Instead, stress tests are used to model
both moderate and more extreme moves in underlying
market factors. When estimating potential loss, we
generally assume that our positions cannot be reduced or
hedged (although experience demonstrates that we are
generally able to do so).
Stress test scenarios are conducted on a regular basis as part
of the firm’s routine risk management process and on an ad
hoc basis in response to market events or concerns. Stress
testing is an important part of the firm’s risk management
process because it allows us to quantify our exposure to tail
risks, highlight potential loss concentrations, undertake
risk/reward analysis, and assess and mitigate our
risk positions.
Limits
We use risk limits at various levels in the firm (including
firmwide, product and business) to govern risk appetite by
controlling the size of our exposures to market risk. Limits
are set based on VaR and on a range of stress tests relevant
to the firm’s exposures. Limits are reviewed frequently and
amended on a permanent or temporary basis to reflect
changing market conditions, business conditions or
tolerance for risk.
The Firmwide Risk Committee sets market risk limits at
firmwide and product levels and our Securities Division
Risk Committee sets sub-limits for market-making and
investing activities at a business level. The purpose of the
firmwide limits is to assist senior management in
controlling the firm’s overall risk profile. Sub-limits set the
desired maximum amount of exposure that may be
managed by any particular business on a day-to-day basis
without additional levels of senior management approval,
effectively leaving day-to-day trading decisions to
individual desk managers and traders. Accordingly, sub-
limits are a management tool designed to ensure
appropriate escalation rather than to establish maximum
risk tolerance. Sub-limits also distribute risk among various
businesses in a manner that is consistent with their level of
activity and client demand, taking into account the relative
performance of each area.
Our market risk limits are monitored daily by Market Risk
Management, which is responsible for identifying and
escalating, on a timely basis, instances where limits have
been exceeded. The business-level limits that are set by the
Securities Division Risk Committee are subject to the same
scrutiny and limit escalation policy as the firmwide limits.
When a risk limit has been exceeded (e.g., due to changes in
market conditions, such as increased volatilities or changes
in correlations), it is reported to the appropriate risk
committee and a discussion takes place with the relevant
desk managers, after which either the risk position is
reduced or the risk limit is temporarily or
permanently increased.
90 Goldman Sachs 2012 Annual Report