Exxon 2007 Annual Report Download - page 19

OECD – Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
LIQ U I D S SU P PLY AND D E M A ND
Meeting the growing need for affordable, reliable energy
supplies remains a tremendous challenge. Access to
resources, ongoing investments, and transparent energy
markets, including international trade, are critical.
Liquid fuel, principally oil, is the most widely used source
of energy today. Demand is expected to increase from
86 million oil-equivalent barrels per day today to 116 million
oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2030. Demand will be met
by a variety of sources.
G AS S U PPLY AND DE MAND
Natural gas will continue to expand its reach as a reliable,
affordable source of energy. Demand will increase in
North America, Europe and, most significantly, Asia Pacific.
International trade, via long pipelines and liquefied natural
gas (LNG) supplies, will play a critical role in meeting these
growing needs. While each region’s gas supply-demand
outlook is unique, they share a growing need for LNG. To
help meet these demands, supplies are expected to increase
significantly from the Middle East, Africa, and Australia over
the outlook period.
G LO B A L E N E R GY IN PERSPE CTIV E
In assessing the global energy future, it is important to
recognize the expected contribution of all primary energy
sources. Oil consumption, driven by transportation and
industrial demand, will likely increase at 1.2 percent per year.
Gas consumption is expected to grow at 1.7 percent per
year, largely due to increasing demand for power genera-
tion from efficient fuels with relatively low carbon intensity.
Demand for coal, which has high carbon intensity, is likely
to rise less than 1 percent per year. Nuclear power is
expected to grow significantly, particularly after 2020.
Renewable fuels will also gain share, with a growth rate of
1.5 percent per year expected overall. Most of this segment is
made up of traditional biomass (e.g., wood, charcoal, dung),
hydroelectric, and geothermal energy, which have relatively
modest growth rates.
In contrast, “modern” renewables, specifically wind, solar,
and biofuels, are likely to grow rapidly, at about 9 percent
per year on average, supported by government subsidies
and mandates. These energy sources currently represent
about 0.5 percent of world energy and are expected to
reach approximately 2 percent by 2030.
Global energy-related CO 2 emissions are likely to increase
1.2 percent per year on average, with the non-OECD
countries representing close to 95 percent of the annual
growth over the outlook period.
C O N CL U S I O NS
We draw three key conclusions from our outlook.
• Economic progress will drive energy demand significantly
higher by 2030, up nearly 40 percent versus 2005, even
with substantial gains in efficiency. This growth will be
concentrated in the non-OECD countries, where economies
are growing rapidly and where billions of people require
access to growing quantities of energy to improve their
quality of life.
• Oil, gas, and coal will be indispensable to meet the demand
for reliable, affordable energy for the foreseeable future.
Since renewable fuels start from a small base, even with
rapid growth, they will not significantly alter the global energy
mix over the outlook period. Fossil fuels are expected to
continue to provide about 80 percent of energy in 2030.
• Significantly impacting global CO 2 emissions growth will
require the combination of many challenging and essential
elements, including global participation, step changes in
energy efficiency, significant technology gains, and massive
investment over decades.
Our approach to addressing these challenges is pragmatic,
with a long-term perspective. We remain committed to
finding practical, broad-based solutions that will help ensure
reliable, affordable energy for people around the world.
Biomass, Other
Hydro, Geothermal
Biofuels, Wind, Solar
Renewables
(millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day)
1980 2005 2030
50
40
30
20
10
Annual Growth 2005-2030
Average 1.5%
8.7%
2.0%
0.7%
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
(billions of metric tons CO2 per year)
1980 2005 2030
40
30
20
10
OECD Countries
Non-OECD Countries
Annual Growth 2005-2030
Average 1.2%
1.9%
0.1%
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Annual Growth 2005-2030
1.5%
2.0%
Average 1.3%
1.7%
0.9%
1.2%
1980 2005 2030
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
(millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day)
World Energy Demand by Fuel
E X X O N M O B I L C O R P O R A T I O N • 2 0 0 7 S U M M A R Y A N N U A L R E P O R T 17