Comerica 2015 Annual Report Download - page 43

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F-5
2016 OUTLOOK
Management expectations for 2016, compared to 2015, assuming a continuation of the current economic and low-rate
environment, are as follows:
• Average loans modestly higher, in line with Gross Domestic Product growth, reflecting a continued decline in Energy
more than offset by increases in most other lines of business.
• Net interest income higher, reflecting the benefits from the December 2015 short-term rate increase, loan growth and a
larger securities portfolio more than offsetting higher funding costs.
Full-year benefit from the December rise in short-term rates expected to be more than $90 million if deposit
prices remain at current levels.
• Provision for credit losses higher, with an estimated impact of $75 million to $125 million for energy and energy-related
exposure, recognized primarily in the first quarter. Continued improvements in the remainder of the portfolio provide a
partial offset.
Net charge-offs in line with historical normal levels.
• Noninterest income modestly higher, primarily due to growth in card fees from merchant processing services, government
card and commercial card. Continued focus on cross-sell opportunities, including wealth management products such as
fiduciary and brokerage services.
• Noninterest expenses higher, reflecting continued increases in technology costs and regulatory expenses, increased outside
processing in line with growing revenue, higher FDIC insurance expense due to recent regulatory proposal, and typical
inflationary pressures. Additionally, 2015 benefited from a $33 million legal reserve release, which is offset by lower
pension expense in 2016.
• Income tax expense to approximate 32 percent of pre-tax income.